Submitted by Strict_DM_62 t3_10ffivq in Futurology
Ok so, simply put, I'm lay-person, blue collar worker who enjoy technology. I love that my home is wired up, that we're exploring the depths of space, that we're looking at better and better augmetics, and that fission and other technologies are coming online; lets bring on that Star Trek, Star Wars, or whatever future. I love my apple watch, and self-driving cars. But, AI has me worried for our future. When I say AI, I generally tie it in with the use of robotics or computers; drones, programs, machinery, etc.
I fear that AI will, perhaps slightly hyperbolically, lead to the destruction of our civilization. I feel this will largely be brought on by a rapid, and massive disruption in our workforce that will likely see hundreds of millions unemployed, followed by the over all degradation of society as we know it. I'm not at the point where I think a true, thinking AI will rule us all; but I genuinely don't feel that's an impossibility. Now, this isn't the immediate horizon, but on like a 40-50 year timeline.
I'm hoping that someone can really talk me down (politely please, I'm just a reader trying to understand the world). I want to be excited about the future again. My only solace right now, is this phrase "that's its easy to see what jobs an innovation will replace, but near impossible to anticipate what opportunities they'll create."
So here are a few reasons that AI scares me, in no particular order:
- It's in businesses best interest to replace us - Over the long term, in any capitalist society, it is in a company's best interest to reduce it's costs; and it's employees are often it's biggest costs. Over the long term, any company that can, will find a way to replace its workforce to as near totality as it can without impact it's operations; corporations with shareholders especially.
- Humans aren't good at "moderation" and knowing when to stop - lets be real. Humans are bad at moderating ourselves. I have no faith that well meaning scientists will push it too far, and ill meaning people will create every kind of evil from it. Great, we have an AI that can code, an AI for hacking won't be far behind. Hurrah, we have an AI for search and resume, and the military will create an AI for hunting people. I struggle to fathom why people think creating a truly thinking AI is good idea. WE think humans are shitty, how do we really think an ultra powerful AI that is running our lives will feel about us?
- Tech disrupting pretty much every industry at once - I understand that technology creates a lot of opportunities, often more than it destroys. Another conversation I was in used the Mechanical Combine as an example, it destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs on farms; but created many more. I do appreciate these examples, but in every example I can think of, a technology really disrupted either one industry, or a small handful, and people were able to either take advantage of the change or change sectors. I can't think of another technology, save perhaps the internet, that will impact almost literally every industry on earth, at the same time, everywhere, at an incredibly rapid pace. Lose your job as a taxi driver? Don't look at medical diagnosis, art, policy, factory workers, legal aides, mining, military personnel, and more. All of these are likely to be replaced by drones or AI, or vast sums of their workforces will be. What are we going to do, retrained 200million low income workers to build code for AI? Can't do that, AI is writing code.
- Humans won't be able to "QC" for AI for very long - Many people say, "oh well, if the AI is writing code (or policy, or law, etc.), it'll still need humans to QC it's work." My question is, for how long? the AI is learning at a rapid pace. If it takes over writing code, how long will it be before those who are doing the QC, have never actually written code in their lives? 5 years? 10 years? Why would you have someone who has never professionally written code, only learned in school, QCing for an AI who has millions of hours learning code? It won't be worth the money you pay people, at least not forever.
- Humans suffer without a purpose in life - This is a bit of a wishy washy one. I've seen a few people say that "good, people will be left with more time to socialize, explore, and do the fun things in life." Now, I don't how many of you have been unemployed (I have), and I know many other who have; and they're not happy. You collect EI (similar to a UBI), and feel depressed. You feel like you have no value. Humans need something to do, something to contribute to, we always have. Back to being cavemen, each individual had a role in the tribe. I feel like saying "Go forth, you're now free to never work again, but only get paid this fixed amount for the rest of your life; Enjoy!" is a recipe for a stagnant, dying society.
- Governments are slow to react - We all know this. I read a headline that said AI generated digital content (music, art, videos, TikToks, etc.) could make up 80% of what's on the internet by 2025. That's A LOT of people out of work. I don't know about your governments, by the idea of national Universal Basic Income isn't anywhere on the radar, and implementation will take a decade for sure. But technology waits for no government, and the lag time in between is what scares me immensely.
- The divide between the Rich and Poor will explode - Simply put, when AI replaces jobs, it won't be the rich who suffer, it'll be the poor. Those that can harness AI, specially those who OWN large businesses, will become richer than any of us can imagine today; and the rest of us will suffer on a static UBI. I can't fathom the unrest and suffering that will likely follow.
- The creative space, which I hoped was going to be the last refuge of humanity, was actually the first to go - I had always hoped that creative pursuits, such as art and music, would be the last things to go. That even if jobs disappear we could each delve into the creative, and find self worth there. But instead, they were the first to go, at least digitally. I can see some physical manifestations going to AI as well.
Again, I honestly hope that I'm wrong about all of these, and I'd love to see how. This isn't even touching on our society losing it's ability to write thing (why write a book when you can get an AI to write papers, blog posts, news posts, reports, summaries, etc.). This might seem outlandish today, but in 10-15 years I can hardly fathom where we are, and where the AI is. I want to be excited about the future, but this scares me.