Recent comments in /f/RhodeIsland

degggendorf t1_j4lhj59 wrote

> The claims about housing “migration chains” don’t make empirical sense, because the housing that people are supposedly migrating up to is still more expensive than the housing they’re in.

You're misunderstanding the concept. One person upgrades to a more expensive place by choice, which then vacates their current, cheaper place for someone else.

> Can you point to a city where predominantly expensive housing was built but housing at all price points got cheaper?

I just did with the links in my previous comment that you evidently didn't read and/or understand.

>They built a lot of expensive housing in San Francisco in the last 20 years, and lower-priced housing didn’t get cheaper, it went up (until the pandemic).

Yep, classic supply and demand.

2011: 375,000 housing units; 816,000 people

2019: 398,000 housing units; 879,000 people

63,000 more people competing for just 23,000 new housing units. Demand growth outstrips supply growth, prices go up. If it was 63,000 more people and 0 new housing units, prices would be even higher.

>Even now housing is still too expensive for most people to move there, and consumes too much of the incomes of people who already do — it’s still not “affordable” and building more expensive housing won’t change that.

How did you arrive at that conclusion? It seems plainly illogical to me, but maybe I am misunderstanding some part of your thought process. What do you think would happen if a million new apartments opened up in San Francisco tomorrow?

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Beezlegrunk t1_j4lf29j wrote

>Here you go, let me know if you have any questions: https://www.thenation.com/article/society/affordable-housing-debate/

That article offers conflicting “yes” and “no” answers …

The ultimate test or verification of whether building expensive housing makes all housing cheaper is whether places that did the former experienced the latter.

Having lived in multiple cities that did the former — and read about rising housing prices in other ones that did so as well — I have yet to see the latter.

Can you point to a city where predominantly expensive housing was built but housing at all price points got cheaper?

Even expensive housing doesn’t get significantly cheaper when more of it gets built — it only really goes down when there’s a complete market collapse, like the 2008 financial crisis, and even then it doesn’t drop enough to make it affordable, but just to correct the last inflationary increments of the speculative bubble that led to the collapse itself.

If high-priced housing itself doesn’t get that much cheaper due to more high-priced housing being built, how would lower-priced housing get significantly cheaper from more high-priced housing (but no more low-priced housing) being built?

The claims about housing “migration chains” don’t make empirical sense, because the housing that people are supposedly migrating up to is still more expensive than the housing they’re in.

Wealthy people moving into even more expensive housing doesn’t suddenly make their old housing more affordable to people who couldn’t afford it before, because prices don’t actually go down significantly, if at all.

They built a lot of expensive housing in San Francisco in the last 20 years, and lower-priced housing didn’t get cheaper, it went up (until the pandemic).

Even now housing is still too expensive for most people to move there, and consumes too much of the incomes of people who already do — it’s still not affordable, and building more expensive housing won’t change that.

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allhailthehale t1_j4ldx5n wrote

I think lots of people do understand that they're paying more, but have issues with cash flow.

I know many people are sitting there thinking, "well, why don't they have the self control to just save up and get ahead so that they can save money in the long run?" But for someone really living at the margins, it may be a struggle to set aside $50 or $100 a month. At that rate, it's really, really easy to have your tiny cushion that you've built up over 6 months eaten up by an emergency expense like car trouble or reduced work hours and then you're back to scraping by on $1.25 of shampoo until the next paycheck.

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possiblecoin t1_j4lcrvl wrote

There was an article about it in the Providence Journal years ago. Basically the son who inherited the house doesn't have the heart to sell it or live in it. It's basically a museum at this point, with his father's clothes still in the drawers, etc. Pristine but otherwise untouched. It's kind of sweet but also a little weird.

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anemonemometer t1_j4laqq1 wrote

It’s one of the places I’ll go if there’s one or two random things I can’t find somewhere else and I want to avoid driving half an hour to Walmart or Target. I probably won’t find it at a dollar store either, since they’re often a disorganized mess, but sometimes I’ll get lucky.

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degggendorf t1_j4l4lx7 wrote

> None of these clowns ever references the actual outcomes of their theories in major U.S. cities

Here you go, let me know if you have any questions: https://www.thenation.com/article/society/affordable-housing-debate/

Or if you want to skip the summary with a host of sources linked to illustrate, here's one particular study anchored in actual data to read:

  1. https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/

  2. https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=up_policybriefs

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degggendorf t1_j4l4g99 wrote

> now 1/3 of the year has little return?

I mean, I guess, but that's not really a sensical way to think of it.

You should take the whole yearly cycle into account to look at ROI. It sounds like OP is still going to come out way ahead for the year.

But if you want to look at it your way, if OP is getting "little return" for Dec-Feb, then they're getting infinite return Mar-Nov.

Of course the decision to install solar depends on a lot of factors - as you said, length of time you expect to stay in the house is definitely a big one - but now more than ever, it has a pretty safe ROI.

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degggendorf t1_j4l40d4 wrote

> but we know that both gas and electric prices are high right now, not likely to go down any time soon (if ever)

That is not true. Out rates are smoothed over a 3-month period, and we can see real-time gas prices that will legally have to be taken into account with next quarter's rates. Next quarter's gas price will be lower. @ me if it's not.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-natgas-price-plunge-could-limit-this-years-output-growth-2023-01-13/

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