mfb- t1_iqpvm28 wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Is it possible Betelgeuse has already supernovae’d and the light has not reached us yet? by randitothebandito
> it is almost certain that it has already gone supernova.
No it's not, stop spreading misinformation. It's only ~500-600 light years away and most models expect the star to live another 10,000-100,000 years, and even models where its remaining lifetime might be zero are just saying "at some point in the next few (ten) thousand years", with a small probability of the next 500-600. See e.g. this modeling from February, and in particular table 3 in it.
We cannot rule it out, but it looks very unlikely.
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