Recent comments in /f/dataisbeautiful
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7ux6bi wrote
Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
For example, 4 and 7 are each only about 80-85% as common as they were before 2015. (In 2015, the NFL moved the extra point distance back from 20 yards, where kickers converted 99% of the time, to 33 yards, where they now make only 94% of their extra-point kicks. Combined with near-record levels of field goals and 2-point conversion attempts, scores have gotten a lot weirder than they used to be.)
Caspi7 t1_j7ux3rh wrote
Reply to comment by MePiyush in [OC] Rapid rise in Indian students going abroad by MePiyush
What is lakh?
Iron_Chic t1_j7ux2a9 wrote
Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
With the addition of the 2 point conversion, increase of the yardage for the extra point conversion, and more teams trying to convert on 4th and short as opposed to kicking a FG, it makes sense.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7uwhno wrote
Reply to comment by Iron_Chic in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Haha, won't we all with the 2 and the 6. Yes, you still want 0, 7, 4, and 3... but as compared with the rest of the Super Bowl era (since 1966) prior to the time period shown above, the proliferation of the NFL's weird score era has made these Squares more equitable, shifting over seven percentage points' worth of probability from the traditional stalwarts (0,7,4,3,1) to less-common numbers (2,5,6,8,9). So getting 2s and 6s like you've mentioned actually isn't as bad as it was from 1966 to 2014 (or 1982 to 2014).
debunk_this_12 t1_j7uw0zw wrote
Reply to comment by Al-Pharazon in [OC] The EIU’s Democracy Index has released scores for countries in 2022, this is a map showing the change in score since 2021. by Flagmaker123
And the Democratic republic of the Congo😂? They are exploited by the chinese and the west how is that Democratic? And u know who else’s is well known for their democracy? North korea
gnex30 t1_j7uvd5x wrote
Reply to [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
place your bets on 7-0 or 0-7
Iron_Chic t1_j7uux3s wrote
Reply to [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
So. I want combinations of 7, 4, 3 and 0. Just like every year since 1982? Shocking.
I will end up with 2 and 6 somehow...
giant2179 t1_j7utbjt wrote
Reply to comment by bobdobalina990 in [OC]48 hours of the earthquake in Turkey by Unique_Lengthiness30
Pretty cool. I like the dial indicator for depth.
[deleted] t1_j7uppn9 wrote
[removed]
dootrumpet t1_j7upo9u wrote
Reply to comment by SaffronBanditAmt in [OC] Rapid rise in Indian students going abroad by MePiyush
you miss the point.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7upd1j wrote
Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Most of these pools do offer smaller prizes if you have the correct square after the first, second, or third quarters as well. (The final score is the big pot.) So practically speaking, 0-0 is actually conceivable if no team scores in the first quarter, for instance.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7up442 wrote
Reply to comment by tessthismess in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Yes, [0,0] would be like 10-0, 20-10, 30-20, etc. I should consider how to make this more clear on the standalone image because right now it sort of requires prior knowledge of how "Super Bowl Squares pools" work.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7uo6dz wrote
Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Not sure where you're located, but the way betting odds are presented can vary quite a bit from place to place. -125, +105 are "American odds." The tool I've linked to below is a nifty little way to convert these to decimal odds or British odds (both of which are more common internationally), as well as to win probabilities.
goprofx t1_j7unthu wrote
Reply to [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Do you have this code somewhere? I think this is interesting, and I'd like to see how you did it
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7unrgp wrote
Reply to comment by miclugo in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Those are based on current betting markets, which price the Eagles at -125 and the Chiefs at +105. -125 implies a 55.56% chance to win, and +105 implies a 48.78% chance to win. That sums to more than 100%, as the sportsbooks factor in a cut (or "vig") for themselves. So you have to adjust those back down to 100% to determine actual sportsbook-implied probabilities.
[Edit: Added a missing word]
tessthismess t1_j7unhcq wrote
Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Ohhhh okay. So like 0-0 isn't a tie it's like 10-0 or something. Got it. Thanks for the explanation.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7un7fw wrote
Reply to comment by tessthismess in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
Thank you for the question, and sorry for the misunderstanding. Those digits represent the final digit of each team's final score. So [1,0] could mean [Eagles 21, Chiefs 20], [Eagles 31, Chiefs 20], [Eagles 41, Chiefs 30], etc. In these examples and others like it, whoever owned the [Eagles 1, Chiefs 0] square would win the pool.
jeffinRTP t1_j7umxvq wrote
Reply to comment by ayyojosh in [OC] Affirm’s Income Statement 2022 Q3 and Q4 Visualized with a Sankey Diagram by Square_Tea4916
I use them quite often and probably 75% of mine are interest-free, making four payments once every two weeks. The ones that are not the interest rates are in line with credit cards.
miclugo t1_j7umegj wrote
Reply to [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
How do you get these numbers from the win probability?
tessthismess t1_j7um465 wrote
Reply to [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
I could be misunderstanding this. How is there a 0.9% probability of a 1-0 game (for Eagles)? I thought, from Scorigami, that was impossibe.
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7ulloy wrote
Tato7069 t1_j7uiccv wrote
Reply to comment by ayyojosh in [OC] Affirm’s Income Statement 2022 Q3 and Q4 Visualized with a Sankey Diagram by Square_Tea4916
And it turned out they were the low income financially illiterate individuals all along
ayyojosh t1_j7uh4r9 wrote
Reply to [OC] Affirm’s Income Statement 2022 Q3 and Q4 Visualized with a Sankey Diagram by Square_Tea4916
tbh i’m glad companies like affirm are operating at a net loss, these type of businesses (buy now, pay later) are super predatory and often target low-income and financially illiterate individuals
SaffronBanditAmt t1_j7uf7k8 wrote
Reply to comment by dootrumpet in [OC] Rapid rise in Indian students going abroad by MePiyush
How do you expect us to conquer your country if we don't get there?
__eldorado__ OP t1_j7uydb8 wrote
Reply to comment by gnex30 in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__
It's usually a random draw, but some of the sportsbook apps actually offer these now with the opportunity to pick.
Unfortunately, of course, they assign different payout odds to each square, which would be less (or a lot less) for the more common number pairs. And they do it in a way, mathematically, whereby they can pretty much guarantee that they make money.
For example, if a square with a 3.0% probability were fairly priced, it would be priced at +3233 (i.e., risk $100 to make $3,233). They'd probably price that square around +2900 instead, essentially creating negative expected value for bettors (who run the math) in every single square.