In my neck of the woods (California) the cutoff is September 1, but it used to be December 31. You had a lot of kids going halfway through Kindergarten as 4-year-olds. Now those Sept-Dec babies go to "transitional kindergarten" first.

Come to think of it, I don't remember providing a copy of the birth certificate when I enrolled my kid in kindergarten. I think most American parents are so eager to get their kids out of the house and into free childcare (er, I mean school) that the deception would be more likely to go the other way (pretending your kid is older than they really are).

So you're telling me there's a chance?

Yes, according to my co-workers from India. They're pretty upfront about it, too (and pretty upfront about being in arranged marriages).

This is really well made. A good selection of data that tells a story and a very clean and easy to understand visualization of it.

That's what the relative age effect is.

He didn't, in the podcast he talks about the Canadian researcher's wife who noticed it.

I was going to suggest a red/blue overlay

The phrase brothers vs brothers was literal in some cases.

I appreciate the comment and it’s true what you say, but the map actually shows they had at least 40. As it turns out they didn’t get creative with the numbering system for their infantry regiments. As it turns out they had about 50 regimental sized units depending on how you count them. I think units like the 82nd Airborne and 101st names derive from their original associations (its been awhile so I'm not sure), but I do know in WWII in the Pacific the 3rd Fleet and 5th Fleet were comprised of the same ships, with the Fleet changing names depending upon whether Halsey or Spruance was in charge.

Your simulation gives the U.S. a 1/25 chance (in the long run) of winning the whole thing? That seems...optimistic...

It is effected by how voting is setup. For instance reducing the number of urban voting locations.

I’m sorry to jump on this post but your assessment may not be entirely true. War is deception. In World War Two we created the 10th mountain division. In fact we only had one; but didn’t want the axis powers to know how many others may be around.

Judging by coloration 40-80

It has been long since the last: "Why do the simple computation when I can run simulations and get an approximation of the result" posts.

and yes y-axis is a random number to spread the results

I think that’s great that Quebec is doing well. I’ve read that when they last almost seceded, Montreal lost some big companies who moved to Toronto, and since I have a kid who lives in Montreal I know the rents are cheap compared to comparably awesome cities in North America.

Upsets mean unexpected results, it is taken from the betting to measure how big was the surprise. For example, the winning bet on Saudi Arabia vs Argentina was 25.5 (which is a lot) so for each $100 you put on Saudi Arabia you would win $2550 meaning it is a big surprise

The book "Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell dives into this phenomenon. Great read.

https://i.imgur.com/ML9zrvi.png

so i ran a quick calculation on this website: https://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/grubbs2/ thats an outlier test and according to the result the 94 isn't an outstanding value, i'd assume then its just a random effect

Oxford predicted Belgium will go to the final and lose to Brazil, they are out in first round.

These simulations are cool and all, but basing your simulation on ranking only doesn’t generate accurate predictions. You need to consider players recent form, team chemistry, injuries etc.

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Thanks! fixed (in the viz can't edit here)

It also doesn't help if you're late going into puberty. I'm a November and never hit puberty until late in my 14th year. I was smaller in the first part of 10th grade than some of the kids entering 8th grade. It's hard to gain any skills in sports if you're never played because of your size.

Or you could do what they do in the southern USA and have them early in year AND hold them back a year. I started college at 17 and my roommate turned 20 freshman year.