ok so this is based on the results. understood. what about the y axis?

Soccer is more popular than hockey in the US? I honestly never would’ve thought lol

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I was the youngest in my grade, and I skipped a year. I think it was an advantage to start college at 16 (many start even younger)

Argentine I think they may have a chance

Mark my words, its not going to be Australia.

Seems to be (decimal odds - 1) then?

Cool vis, only criticism is that definition of 'winning bet'. Showing either decimal odds or even implied probs would be more intuitive. Also: I assume it is 1x2 odds and not draw no bet or anythinh?

Something seems fairly flawed if it has the US as an average favorite in the quarterfinals - 22/41. They'll be heavy underdogs to Argentina and not enough of a favorite vs Australia to offset it in the off chance that they also pull the upset in the first round

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The Thing was 1982

Same birthday as Neymar Jr and CR7, but I can't even dribble the ball.

On what is this based?

If you just look at other world cup performances, it does not make any sense.

Hopefully something like the last 4-10 years or so. France being the current world champion, this having a good team at hand should give them much higher chances of winning.

I mean most of the movies that suddenly jump to #1 were still always in top 100. Taste also is pretty subjective and dynamic just day to day and over time.

I think that’s really overly simplifying it. There just is so many genuinely great and amazing movies that we are that the point you can make an argument for well over 100 movies to be the top 10 movies of all time as they are so close in quality and have just simply have different strengths. As well, taste is very dynamic and changes constantly. Guillermo del Toro had a really good quote on it that if you asked him next week he would have a totally different list. I think the fact that so many of the same movies do keep showing up to be a huge testament to their greatness

And most of the ones in the top 10 are in the top 100 later years.

Read that from the book the Outliers

> How is it possible that Both the Netherlands AND Argentina wins the quarter final more than 50% of the time. When reached.

If the Netherlands and Argentina have e.g. 50%/50% against each other but more than 50% chance against the other team (US/Australia) then you get more than 50% (conditional) chance to advance for both teams.

The 107% sum is odd, indeed.

That should be a separate comparison graph.

there's a pretty accurate simulation site they use for Starcraft called aligulac that I found predicts tournaments better than humans all the time. The thing is, these are individual players with many games being played against each other. Most of the players in the world cup spend most of their games in different teams, so the dataset of games in their WC arrangement is too small to make accurate predictions from.

This is looking at a single variable accounting for nothing. Basically a small linear correlation in a small sample size. Wouldn’t look into it too much

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This is not including confederate units btw.

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The month doesn’t matter lol. It’s the phase the moon is in obviously.

All the best players were born on a blood moon when Saturn and Uranus were lined up(common knowledge).

That wasn’t incompetent. It was the only way to do it. Had Lincoln banned slavery in Kentucky, Missouri, Delaware, and Maryland on day 1, then all those regiments would have fought for the South. The confederates most likely would have won the war and slavery probably would have existed for many decades afterwards. Lincoln was a brilliant man.

Also, MN was the first state to promise soldiers to the Union cause! Source: https://www.mnhs.org/fortsnelling/learn/military-history/civil-war