Recent comments in /f/explainlikeimfive

PM_ur_Rump t1_ja8ad7h wrote

Or it could go down as everyone involved is now being more cautious.

I forget the exact scenario that inspired the conversation, but the person I was arguing with was definitely talking about the "odds" in the context of simple odds in the manner of "if a one in a million chance thing just happened, it's now probably closer to one in two million it happens again."

Odds only change when directly linked.

So if you are gambling on a dice roll and you bet that it will land on six, it's a one in six chance. If it does, and you bet on six again, the odds are still just one in six.

To change the odds, you would need to bet that it lands on six twice, because now you have linked the two rolls before they happen.

In the case of the plane crash, the odds of two planes crashing for independent reasons on the same day, involving the same airport, are much higher than a single plane crashing. Unfortunately for our hypothetical travellers, one plane already crashed, bringing the odds back down to the standard single-event odds.

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TehWildMan_ t1_ja8abof wrote

Reply to comment by astajaznan in Eli5 credit score please. by astajaznan

> Aren't people who use credit cards a lot more risky to the bank, in the sense that they might not have enough fund

Look at it another way, a person who for years has been able to handle having a few hundred dollars in revolving accounts, and never missed a payment, would appear as a lower risk than someone who has never had any kind of loan before.

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astajaznan OP t1_ja8a2qy wrote

What I noticed on various memes, etc., is that the more you use your credit card, the more your credit score increases. If you want to take out a loan from the bank, the higher the credit score, the better chance you have of getting a loan. Aren't people who use credit cards a lot more risky to the bank, in the sense that they might not have enough funds to repay the loan if they spend a lot? What's the catch, since I can't understand the principle?

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Spiritual_Jaguar4685 t1_ja8a05u wrote

Credit Scores are a number, between 300-850, that is used to measure how likely you are to pay back your debts.

In practice having a low credit score is an indicator that you are more likely to not pay your debts, and a high credit score indicates you are very reliable.

In turn lenders like banks and credit card companies will offer better (meaning lower cost) terms to people with high scores because they know it's a low risk of them losing money. They will offer worse terms (more expensive) to people with lower scores to offset the risk the person will not be able to pay them back.

The scores themselves are generated by private companies that don't disclose the math they use to generate them, but we know a little bit. Note that having no 'credit history' doesn't mean a poor score, it means no score. People who have never had any sort of loan or credit card at all have no score.

So to get a score in the first place you need some sort of loan, for example a credit card, and then start buying things and paying it off. The credit card company forwards your history to the credit score company and the credit score company takes note that you are borrowing money (using the credit card) and paying it off on time. This is "Good stuff" and gives you a good credit score.

For the bank question, no, not if you just have a checking account or savings account. BUT your credit score does factor in things like the size of your loans and the age of your accounts. For example if I have a massive car loan, and I pay it on time every month, the payment is a good thing (I'm reliable) but the size of the loan is a bad thing (I might not be able to pay other loans I get, because I already have a big one).

Other factors to consider are - people who look for loans need money and needing money is a good sign someone will have trouble paying loans, it's a Catch-22, but looking for loans will actually hurt your credit score for this reason. This is usually minimal and short-lived but it's important to know.

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ayeeflo51 t1_ja89n28 wrote

Think of credit score as the ranking creditors give you, the higher the number, the more they trust that you will be able to pay that back.

A few categories make up how it is calculated such as your payment history (are you making payments on time), utilization (say you have a credit card with $1k limit, using 95% of that is bad), overall lines of credit.

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ryneches t1_ja89hrx wrote

I've always thought there's kind of a missed opportunity with this. If only 20% of the inventory for something is left, that's a signal that it is desirable. Other retailers are able turn this to their advantage, but somehow grocery stores can't figure out how to present the last six avocados in an appealing way.

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SYLOH t1_ja8981f wrote

That's defective thinking as well.

Given that one plane crashed, it is much more likely that another plane of the same type will crash.

EG: a design mistake causes undue stress on a part, that part wears out faster that it should. That part breaks mid air and causes a plane crash. It is likely that the parts in all the similar planes has also been under stress, and might be breaking soon as well.

This is why the FAA tends to ground all planes of a certain kind until they figure out it wasn't the plane causing the issue.

See also the Boeing 737-800 MAX

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TehWildMan_ t1_ja893os wrote

The general idea of a credit score is that is a numerical summary of a person's credit history.

Credit cards are among the easier ways to establish a revolving line of credit without any additional spending, so they're often discussed as ways to do exactly that.

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Constant-Parsley3609 t1_ja891j1 wrote

Because the dice doesn't remember what's happened in the past. It's an inanimate object that doesn't undergo any significant change after being rolled.

Can you imagine if the opposite was true? If dice remembered the past and tried to correct for it? How would you know if you're holding a normal dice or dice that (unbeknownst to you) has recently rolled 6 100 times and is now determined to roll something different?

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someone76543 t1_ja88ipg wrote

The odds probably went up slightly. Contaminated fuel, or bad weather, or technical problems with the ground systems, or terrorism, could cause multiple plane crashes. (Though I don't think that has ever happened accidentally... yet. Coordinated terrorist attacks have happened, such as 9/11).

Edit to add: There is also the risk of a design flaw on the aircraft. E.g. 737 Max. Or a consistent manufacturing flaw.

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beardyramen t1_ja88hux wrote

Sadly there is ALSO a marketing reason:

People are more willing to buy when a store is well stocked, rather than an half empty one.

Thus any big grocer is willing to sacrifice a chunk of inventory, in order to maintain a good facade.

This is not sustainable, and promotes bad consumer habits... But this is how we want our world to go 'round.

Better to have everything ready at my fingertip, than to accept a more sustainable way of consuming.

EDIT: added the word ALSO for clarity

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snorkleface t1_ja886c8 wrote

It's not the same food coming out. Eating a specific triggering thing (or just a large amount of something) makes the body empty whatevers sitting near the bottom of your tract. So the food you ate 8 hours ago is what shows up 10 minutes after eating ghost pepper hot sauce.

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MyNameIsRay t1_ja8864v wrote

Modern brakes are more than powerful enough to lock all 4 wheels up with ease, and have the thermal capability to stop a car without issue even if you're going twice the speed limit. The traction of the tires is the limiting factor, not the power of the brakes.

In an emergency stop situation, just slamming the brakes is the fastest way to stop.

Downshifting and using engine braking doesn't stop you more quickly, it lets you continue more quickly. Less heat goes into the brakes (less fade over time), and the engine is in the correct gear to accelerate out (faster exits), which means you can achieve faster lap times in a race.

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aspheric_cow t1_ja885de wrote

Undergraduate degree is also called a Bachelor's degree. It's your standard college degree.

After you get your undergraduate degree, you can then go to a "graduate school" to get a more specialized education. And after many years in graduate school you get a graduate degree such as a Master's degree or a doctoral degree (Ph.D).

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TCNW t1_ja87u0m wrote

After highschool you have a couple options:

  1. Technical school (usually called ‘college’)
  2. University

Technical schools (colleges) are usually 2 yrs long, and give out ‘diplomas’. They usually teach practical subjects (like in trades etc). But also teach similar things as universities.

Universities usually are 4 yrs, and give out ‘degrees’. An ‘undergraduate degree’ is what you get in the first 4 yrs.

After you get an undergraduate degree, you can go back to university and get a graduate degree (also called a ‘Masters degree’). Usually that takes 1-2 yrs.

After you get a Masters degree, you can go back to university again, and get a PHD (also called a ‘doctorate’). This can take anywhere from 3-10 yrs.

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deaconsc t1_ja87lak wrote

You are mistaking this for the probability for a set of events. An event in this case is a roll on a dice - 1/6th chance to roll a number. The chance never changes. BUT the chance of rolling any other number decreases the more you add the events into the set. But that's the probability for the whole set.

Set of 1 roll is 5/6 (times 100 if you wanna see it in % ) which is roughly 83,33 %

But set of 10 rolls (any other than 6) is 5/6 ^ 10 which is roughly 16,15 %

Now from this it seems like the chance is getting bigger, but what's changing is the set you're tracking probability for. The rolls are still 1/6th for a number :)

edit> to give you maybe a better example considering my English and explanation skills :D

if you roll 9 times any other number than 6, then the next roll being any other number while considering the whole set is 16,15 % and the roll for the 6 thus increased to awesome 83,85 %! But that's ONLY because we make the probability based on the previous rolls. The chance the next roll will be any other number on its own is still 5/6 and the chance for the 6 is still 1/6.

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