The 1st time you roll a 6 sided die, you have a 1/6 chance to roll a 6.

The 100th time you roll, you still have a 1/6 chance because it's still a 6-sided die.

The 100000000th time you roll, you still have a 1/6 chance to roll a 6 because it's still a 6-sided die.

If you have rolled four 6s in a row, then on the 5th roll you have a 1/6 chance to roll a 6, because it's still a 6-sided die. Completely apart from that, the chance of rolling five 6s in a row is 1/7776, because there are 7775 other possible combinations for those five rolls.

>Probability only looks forward

I like this phrase. I need to try and remember it.

Because most people who had something better to do would skip and you'd end up being judged by a jury of people who had nothing better to do.

Small edit: as a non-American I sometimes envy your jury system. Here the outcome of a court case strongly depends on whether you get a happy judge or an 80-year old communist aparatchik who hates your tattoos or your choice to be gay.

They don't want to throw out 30% of their product.

You can think of jury duty as a tax to pay for the legal system having "a jury of your peers", much as a monetary tax exists to fund the financial side of the government.

Awareness e.g. You start thinking about it.

For example, after reading this sentence, you might find an itch on your nose

Money supply and money demand(which is loosely what prices are.) are linked but not a perfect ratio, such that a 10% increase in supply won't perfectly follow with a 10% increase in demand.
Current inflation being "weird" is because there are many simultaneous causes here. Covid money isn't the only or primary one.

You’re right. Inference is bad. Anyways….the corporations that own grocery stores do care about you. They love the planet and want to throw out 30% of their food just so you feel happy. You’re right. I’m wrong. There you go. Have a nice day. I’m going to go enjoy it. Hope you do too.

Is there a reason I took a deep breath while reading this?

Need to get your undergraduate degree before you get a graduate degree. Usually takes anywhere from 3-5 years

Again, this was a discussion about theoretical simple odds. The real world isn't a coin flip, and like you pointed out the odds may be weighted in ways you don't know. But yeah, this was about him thinking that a die landing on six made it less likely to land on six again.

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As to cameras seeing "much clearer" than the human eye, they are actually so different that they are very difficult to compare. The human eye takes in a much broader picture than a camera, while the camera may bring in more detail in its smaller field of view. This is because the human eye is built so as to see all the bushes a lion might hide behind well enough to catch the suspicious ones, not a really clear view of a lion too far away to be a threat.

Additionally, the human eye was "designed" by a mindless process and honed over millions of years by that process, one that quits whenever the eye was "good enough", while a camera is made to precision in a factory and designed by an intelligent being which can use metal, glass, and plastic rather than having to grow everything from the ground up and going for a pre-determined end goal of making it better.

As for seeing farther, the zoom lenses in/on a camera are like a telescope. This gives them an advantage when focusing on things at a distance. Human eyes have one lens with variable focal length, not a telescope.

Your citations don't say what you think they do, that businesses over-order by half, fully expecting the majority of product to be wasted...so to make? More money? Because...science?

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The requirements for getting a license in the US are a joke. It's much more strict in Germany. One of the reasons why there are so many traffic collisions in the US is because there are so many terrible drivers on the road. Add to this that there isn't an alternative way of getting around in most of the US. This even includes sidewalks in some places. If there were interconnected and well funded mass transit systems in the US and walkable infrastructure, the driving standards could be higher.

Seems strange. If you have an engine failure in a 4 engine aircraft, why not just shutdown the opposing engine to match the thrust? Presumably if one of the wing engines failed in a trijet, it would be the same thing.

**FYI. No degree is an automatic pathway to a job! **

Degrees open possibilities for jobs that require them, but there are millions of equally qualified candidates with just a degree on their resume. You will need to develop additional skills and experiences to be competitive in the job market.

Why is the current episode "weird"?

Didn't the government "print" lots of money for covid benefits? Isn't this round of inflation linked to that?

When they raise the rate, it costs more to borrow. Since it costs more, banks don’t borrow as much. When banks don’t borrow as much, less money is in circulation. Less money in circulation reduces spending, which will slow down inflation.

The Federal Reserve (AKA: the Fed) loans money to banks in order to keep the flow of money between borrowers, lenders, and savers.

In order to control how much money is entering the economy this way, they raise or lower the interest they charge banks to borrow from them.

By lowering the Fed's interest rates, it makes it easier for banks borrowing money to offer low-interest loans to borrowers (like car and house loans), but also makes the banks less likely to offer high-interest savings accounts to savers, since they can get the money cheaper and reliably from the Fed.

By raising the interest rates, Banks will A) need to raise interest rates on the loans they offer in order to still make a profit and thus remain in business, and B) raise the interest rates on savings accounts so that more people deposit their money with the bank, which is necessary in order to have the money on-hand to offer the loans while borrowing from the Fed is more expensive.

In turn, this results in affecting how much money people have available for purchases. When people have more cash to spend, this increases demand, driving prices up (inflation). When people have less cash on hand, or would rather hold their cash in savings accounts in order to collect more interest, demand decreases, resulting in a downward pressure on prices (ideally only slowing inflation to a manageable level rather than entering deflation, which has its own disruptive effects on the economy).

They all drive drunk, so while there's more drunks driving the average amount of drunk is less.

Our lungs are composed of little tiny sacks for absorbing oxygen called alveoli. When you’re breathing normally, the small air sacs in your lungs can sometimes collapse spontaneously. This can negatively affect lung function and reduce the gas exchange that occurs there.

These involuntary deep breaths or sighs help to prevent the alveoli from collapsing because it’s such a big breath, it serves to reinflate most of your alveoli.

Hi, I have a PhD. Let me try an answer.

The tldr is that undergraduate focuses on learning, and graduate/PhD focus on discovering.

Refer to this diagram that others have linked: https://www.reddit.com/r/PhD/comments/u65rnp/a_phd_explained_in_a_few_diagrams/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Long version below:

In undergraduate degree, your primary job is learning. For the first 2 years, think of it as more difficult highschool -- a general, broad education. In the last 2 years of undergraduate, you'd pick a major and focus heavily on its selected courses -- imagine taking 4 hours of biology classes everyday. Similar to your previous educations, your performance is evaluated on whether you score well on a test -- things that the teacher knows an answer ahead of time. You're acquiring the accumulated knowledge of humanity.

Graduate degree has two levels. You either do a masters (2yrs typically), or you continue after masters to do a PhD(3+ more years on top). I'll explain PhD first.

In a PhD program, your primary job is discovering. Unlike all previous education, in a PhD program nobody knows the answer ahead of times. Your "exam" is more like a class project on steroids: years of research in testing a hypothesis (that nobody has thought of before) by running experiments, and writing up your findings in a scientific paper. Your paper is evaluated by a group of scientists expert in the field (called peer reviews). Once you're done enough original research, preferably with paper publications, you write up a thesis summarizing your original works and graduate.

You know the term "scientist" right? During and after a PhD is when you get to call yourself a scientist, as you'd experienced what it's like pushing the boundaries of human knowledge.

So slightly more focus on why they're different and how.

A bachelor's degree to a certain extent is generic. Generally you're going to take a lot of classes not directly related to your degree like English, math, history, art, foreign languages etc. My undergraduate degree was a bachelor of science in Economics and I took classes on theater, pottery, environmental science, criminalistics etc. that were all required for my degree (or rather they required I take X number of classes in different areas like physical science and art). Some requirements are specific, so I was required to take statistics which is related but I also had to take any 2 additional math classes and took calculus 1 and 2 which were not required for my degree. Then I also had to take X number of economic classes. Sometimes people do 2 bachelor's degrees but if you're luck there will be a lot of overlap between the 2 requirements and you'll only need to take the specific classes related to the 2nd bachelor. The goal was to establish a broad base education.

Then once you have a bachelors you can go and get a Master's in a specific field and you'll generally only need to take specific classes related to that field. My masters is a Masters of Accountancy, for 2 years I only took classes that were directly related to accounting; audit, taxes, forensic accounting, and accounting ethics. The goal was gain a higher level of understanding in a specific subject.

If I ever went back and did my PhD then the focus would be on research, modeling, tools, etc and a lot of those classes are more about how to perform and document research over all than related to the PhD field you're in. Then you perform your research and write a doctoral thesis dissertation where you'll try to expand on the knowledge of the field as a whole and you may have to defend your research against a board of other doctors in that field.

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So you're going to start with an undergraduate degree then if you want a 2nd degree you can decide if you want a 2nd undergraduate or a masters. Once you have a masters you can decide if you want a 2nd masters or a PhD. It's just a matter of how deep you want to focus.