Recent comments in /f/explainlikeimfive

Anarchaeologist t1_ja9j59e wrote

Pick a spot and watch the sun rise. Now put a post in the ground in between the spot you are standing and the point on the horizon the sun rose above.

Now stand on that spot day after day (some days will be too cloudy to see the sun, but keep it up and you'll see a trend.) At first, depending on the season and the hemisphere you're in, you'll see the point on the horizon the sun's rising above move in one direction. But one day it will reverse. Put a post between your standing spot and the farthest in that direction the sun rose above the horizon. This may take a few years to see because of cloudy days, but eventually you'll have it nailed down.

This extreme is called the solstice. There are two of them in a year, and they mark the start of summer or winter. They have either the shortest or longest period of daylight depending on the season.

Now watch for about 6 months more from your spot, and you'll find another extreme point on the other side of your first post. This is the other solstice. Put a post there.

You'll find that it takes 365 sunrises to make the complete cycle through both solstices.

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jowie7979 t1_ja9j4de wrote

People in ancient times used observation of the moon's cycles and the sun's position to estimate the length of a year. However, it wasn't until the development of sophisticated astronomical observations that the length of a year could be determined accurately, leading to the Gregorian calendar with a year length of 365 days and a leap year of 366 days every four years.

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the_chewtoy t1_ja9j3ar wrote

I think you're confusing two concepts:

  1. The chance of any particular number for a roll of the die once (e.g. 1 in 6)

  2. The chance of getting a series of specific results. For instance, the chance of not rolling a 6 if you rolled 30 times is quite low (something like .4% chance of happening).

However, the fact that a sequence of rolls is likely to occur is NOT predictive of any single roll. You know it's weird if you roll 30 times and never hit a 6, but if you roll a 31st time, your odds of any one number is still one in 6.

Don't confuse the probability of getting a sequence with the probability of any single roll. It's a little counter-intuitive for some people.

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EspritFort t1_ja9if1k wrote

>>There's nothing connecting one roll to the next; they are completely independent.

> ...under the assumption of a completely fair die. (An assumption you are usually making in a statistics class.) > > > > In practice, though, the fairness of the die may be in doubt in many real-world scenarios.

You may have quoted the wrong passage there, because even without a fair die it still holds true. Whether the die is weighted towards a 6 or not, the individual rolls are still independent from each other, merely the probabilities of the outcomes are different.

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freefrogs t1_ja9ib55 wrote

A few things to consider here. One is that not every field is a nice soft soil like you might think of in your garden - there are clays and sands and different compositions, some of which are susceptible and others aren't. Another is that not every farm still does plowing, and especially not deep plowing, and even that won't totally break up compaction especially farms that have to plow when it's still wet.

Also, even on farms that do plow, there are still a lot of operations that happen after plowing. There can still be tillage and fertilizing and top-dressing etc etc etc that happen after initial soil prep.

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Iminlesbian t1_ja9i0us wrote

But not before right?

I'm not arguing, this just always kind of messes up my head.

Like the changes of me winning two lottery being the same because the chances of winning the lottery are the same for each ticket.

But how likely is it that someone who plays the lottery all of their life wins, and how likely is it that they win twice?

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rivalarrival t1_ja9hzzm wrote

Aircraft are designed with engine-out operation in mind. The vertical stabilizer provides sufficient yaw authority to operate with an engine out.

You don't shut down a good engine if you don't have to, because you might need it, and it might not start again. You might increase thrust on another engine on the same side, or reduce thrust in an opposing engine, but you're not going to shut a second engine down after one has failed.

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Dyslexic_Engineer88 t1_ja9hhde wrote

If I say I am going to roll a die 4 times, the probability of getting 4 of the same number I picked in a row is 0.077%

Each time I roll the die, the probability of getting the number I picked is 16.67%

The probability of each roll achieving the result you want actually increases as the previous rolls are in your favour.

If you roll 2 of the same in a row, the odds of getting two more is 2.78%, and if you get 3 in a row, the odds of getting the final one is again 16.67%.

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IrishFlukey t1_ja9gw77 wrote

They did not know Earth orbited the Sun, thinking it was the other way around. They could determine the pattern of the seasons, with very simple signs. Thousands of years ago people could do that. They even built things to take advantage of these patterns. Newgrange in Ireland is a megalithic tomb that has a small gap above the entrance that allows the Sun to shine right through and light up inside it on only the 21st of December, the shortest day of the year. There are many other examples.

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rvgoingtohavefun t1_ja9gs2j wrote

You could set it at 0.02 or 0.20 and it's the same don't-give-a-shit group of idiots that are going to drive drunk. Generally you aren't taking a breathalyzer before you get behind the wheel, and 0.05 is still plenty dangerous.

Something like 1/3 are repeat offenders and it's full of motherfuckers driving really fucking drunk, like 0.2 or higher.

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