Recent comments in /f/science

SpeculativeFiction t1_j8jdqpw wrote

What might be true? Shinto? Islam? Hinduism? Christianity?

Have you given equal thought into those and what they say about a moral code, the afterlife, and how likely it is they are the actual true religion, or are you just asking about whatever religion you grew up with, and that people aroumd you believe in?

If the latter, have you re-read the scripture as an adult, to see if it describes an ethos you actually agree with?

If your religion has a core set of rules or ways to live your life, are their teachings something you see reflected in the actions of your fellow faithful, or more importantly, your priests (or equivilents?)

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kytopressler t1_j8jbtbd wrote

Their estimate of SLR is the opposite of a conservative one, their estimate is at the upper range of previous estimates. Edwards et al. (2021) provided us with the most up-do-date results from the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

From Park et al. (2023), this paper,

>For the SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the GrIS contributes about 12 ± 1, 18 ± 0.9 and 23 ± 1.6 cm and the AIS adds 3 ± 0.8, 7 ± 1.4, and 15 ± 1.5 cm to SL by the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels (Fig. 2c, d). 2100 CE (2150 CE) LOVECLIP simulates for the respective scenarios a total ice-sheet contribution to SL of 15 ± 0.9, 24 ± 1.3, 39 ± 2 (19 ± 1.4, 48 ± 1.4, 136 ± 6.2) cm (Fig. 2b).

Compare this to Edwards, from Table 1, which reports median and 5th-95th percentiles, under SSP5-8.5 by 2100, the GrIS contributes 10cm [2,20], the AIS contributes 4cm [-4,14].

Note however, that Park is reporting SLR from pre-industrial, while Edwards is reporting post-2015 SLR, which means you would need to subtract the pre-2015 contributions for a complete comparison. This would have the effect of subtracting less than ~1cm from GrIS, and ~2cm from AIS in Park.

In fact, the AIS contribution found in Park is closer to the median in Edwards' worst-case "Risk-averse projection" which combine assumptions that lead to the highest AIS contribution.

In short, this paper's results for 21st century SLR are from from "conservative" in the sense that they actually fall within the upper range of probability of previous research. They themselves note,

>The GrIS and AIS contributions lie within the range of estimates obtained from uncoupled scenario-forced models for Greenland and Antarctica

Edit: A previous version of this comment was in complete error, mea culpa!

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sabo-metrics t1_j8j91uf wrote

Like a school of orcas. We can do it too, for the good.

in-person communication can lead to the best ideas and productive behavior rising to the top and less productive ideas and/or behavior being systemically left behind

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phikapp1932 t1_j8j6emn wrote

Not OP, but yes I have. It’s definitely a hard sell to believe that we are made in the image of an all-knowing being that we need to worship or be relinquished. And if this being is all-knowing and allows the tragedies I see around me every single day to persist, to truly innocent people, then what would that make me if I worshipped it?

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