If you wanted to dismiss metaclus, you would argue that since it's not a real money betting market, operating for a long period of time, it's not going to work that well. Real money means that people are going to only vote when they are confident, and the long timespan means that losers lose money, and winners gain money, and over time this gives the winners larger "votes" because they can bet more money.

Over an infinite timespan, the winners become the only bettors.

As for AGI in 2027: sure. I mean it's like predicting the first crossing of the atlantic by plane after planes are flying around all over shorter distances. It's obviously possible.