Sure, I'm more trying to get at how people often turn to movies like The Terminator, The Matrix, 2001, etc. and basing their predictions on those somewhat.

2023 / 2024 will be a turning point

I agree hardware Takes à lot longer than expected, you'll never really be chatting to a sentient AI reliably at least not before 2055

Longevity escape velocity?

I'm ready.

Don’t worry. Soon the singularity will take care of this and you won’t need to complain.

I call BS, this just means it's an engineering problem. It is silly to assume we are omniscient enough to absolutely know what may not be discovered in the future.

> My video games don’t look much better than they did in 2013.

Seriously??

Do you still play video games from 2013? Or maybe you have older hardware? Just compare anything released there to any AAA game released recently on ultra setting, with real time ray tracing.

I'm in gamdev space... and the tech in 2013 doesn't even come close to what's available right now, and for free. Just look at Unreal Engine 5 demos or even Unity HDRP demos.

In 2013 I couldn't put my VR headset and play Half Life in it.

End so on, and so forth...

What overall I have a feeling, it's not the matter of progress, but matter of your perception of progress. Maybe you were a teen in 2003-2013? Those years usually feel golden to us, but it's just a cognitive bias.

this was definitely written by AI. I laughed, you fooled them

>It's something else.

Yes, and it's called the passing of time. Google 2004 ≠ Google 2023.

Three generations ago, people managed without electricity, fridge, TV and running water. Two generations ago we got TVs and computers but no internet. The last generation grew up with internet. And now kids can have AI. Physical changes dominate in the first part and informational changes in the second.

But some products are mature and excellent, so we can't expect progress there. You can't improve audio quality by higher sampling rate, 44Khz is sufficient. And retina displays are already at the limit of visual acuity. Videos with more than 60-120fps are already too smooth to tell any improvement. Other devices have been great for decades - house appliances, etc. Food can't be improved since we've been optimising at it for too long. Digital content is already post-scarcity, we can find anything, and now we can generate anything. So AGI will have to deliver on top of these things something else, the low hanging fruits have been picked.

👆 This guy also gets it.

If the output from the first generation AI which becomes the input to the second generation AI is considered illegal, then the output from the second generation AI may be considered illegal as well.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AGTH7rOEbxE

wut

You aren't talking to an AI

Generating data through RL like AlphaGo or "Evolution through Large Models" (ELM) seems to show a way out. Not all data is equally useful for the model, for example problem and task solving is more important that raw organic text.

Basically use LLM to generate and another system to evaluate, in order to filter the useful data examples.

What does mean LEV below your name?

lolololol

I'm ready! I still need the home though.

I don’t see how this new response isn’t in complete alignment with what I’m saying. It’s a program, it doesn’t have wants and needs, it can do exactly that, it will do exactly as directed, but it will not randomly be like “huh this human stuff isn’t fun i’m gonna go to the corner of the universe and put myself in a hooker simulation.”

Do you talk to goog ass(istant), alexa, etc...? How is the fact checking there? Doubt it will be too long before models are combined.

I’m ready

All technology abides by S-curves, all life (including Ai), and all evolution.

In evolution the start of a new S-curve is called punctuated equilibrium.

In computational theory it has to do with breaking out of "local maximum". In game theory it may be referred to as breaking out of a "equilibrium".

It's important to note that these are all cascading S-curves. That is to say, smaller S-curves on-top of larger S-curves, which themselves are on top of larger S-curves. If you ever think progress is slowing down, zoom out.

For clarity it's cascading S-curves. S-curves, on top of S-curves, on-top of S-curves, on top of the big daddy S-curve which started with the big bang and complexity began increasing with the formation of elements etc.