I'll continuously update this comment to link everyone's submissions while adding categories as we go so it's easier to save and reference all the resources:

Chat/word generation: ChatGPT

Data collection/analysis: Channel

Voice generation/voice cloning/text to speech: Eleven Labs

Image generation: Stable Diffusion

Search: Perplexity

I think it's impossible to predict. But what is certainty is that things will be weird.

This seem like the most likely outcome:

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AbleFrenchAtlanticridleyturtle-max-1mb.gif

Just another recommendation system. What I'd like is a bot that crawls the web for all articles ( or even discussions ) of a single story, strips out all the narrative, opinion and fluff and just gives me an aggregated bullet point list.

It really depends. A few people have correctly pointed that massive amounts of investment dollars are leaving the space as Boomers move their money into safe shit like TBills. Ultimately this means that unless AGI is a natural progression from where we are, it highly unlikely we will see it in our lifetimes.
Without the vast amounts of capital funding that has been available to this point, the advance of technologies will slow and the probability of revolutions or massive breakthroughs will diminish.

Why not

Do you have any articles or books that explain why they are unsustainable?

mainly rail. EV is honestly just an unsustainable money grab that creates more dependence on privately owned infrastructure.

> Our energy grids are strained as people will pay the energy cost for having a virtual assistant and using it to improve their lives and corps having more powerful AI that strains grids further

I don't think so. Yes, energy cost is high in many places in the world, but there are places where it is cheap, either because of the government, lack of environmental regulation, and local resources.

Just as tech support has been moved off shore (and is why your tech support person has an Indian accent), running a virtual assistant can be done where it makes sense from an economic point of view. Yes, you will need to have a good data connection, and you have to move servers there, but frankly it's easier and cheaper to ship those servers from China to someplace with cheap electricity than to US or EU.

Expect a new set of countries that host AI server farms, just as there are a set of countries that operate garment manufacturing. R&D will still occur in developed countries, but 'production' will move.

The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer.

actually chatgpt can replace any marketing copyrgither now for $40/month

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I think you are being conservative when you say it will take decades for automation to significantly displace workers.

Oh no

>Book Life 3.0

about to listen to it on audible

I do not think we will see the unemployment numbers from AI and Automation to begin creeping up for another few decades, but they inevitably will, and then there will probably be a decade of horrific unemployment, and then governments will have to start buying out certain highly automated sectors or product manufacturing or service in order to afford a UBI, basically a gradual shift to a hybrid communist/free market economy - that's the only way I see a UBI being feasible. Probably large government owned housing developments, at some point.

> You need to consider that an AI "thinks" vastly faster than us in pretty much every conceivable way, i am talking a factor of 1000 times faster here, minimum. It could replace every single employee in a bank for example and it would be unbelievably more efficient at doing the work than even the best human team of workers in the history of banking.

I think you are thinking of an ASI while I am thinking of an AGI.

$200 a day for an AGI would be so dirt cheap comparatively that it would annihilate the entire jobmarket overnight. One AGI can replace dozens of people, if not much more. Even if the hardware alone costs $50k and the upkeep is $1000 a day for your own AGI, it would still be considered dirtcheap.

You need to consider that an AI "thinks" vastly faster than us in pretty much every conceivable way, i am talking a factor of 1000 times faster here, minimum. It could replace every single employee in a bank for example and it would be unbelievably more efficient at doing the work than even the best human team of workers in the history of banking.

UBI won't happen but everything else we already have.

This is where I think/guess some time between now and a few years after reaching AGI, its a lot of theory crafting in my opinion

• Economically, politically, culturally we are in a time of great upheaval. The rich nations know large change is coming and need to implement these new changes whilst starting to lay down the foundations for the rest of the world to eventually follow suit. Immigration, terrorism, hatred towards the rich nations increase as they move significantly forward whilst in comparison the poor nations look like they have stagnated.
• Energy is the limiting factor for a number of services and products we want. Our energy grids are strained as people will pay the energy cost for having a virtual assistant and using it to improve their lives and corps having more powerful AI that strains grids further. The cost of energy will be high until we get a handle on it.
• White collar jobs have completely split into two categories, the ones that can be replaced by AI who are on some kind of weak UBI. The others will be working with AI and be generating significant value as time goes on more and more humans can be displaced, meaning the ones that produce large value are the ones who make all the money.
• Some Blue Collar jobs have been replaced by automation but everyone knows their time is short as job cuts keep coming as efficiency is improved meaning less workers required to do the same amount of work.
• Computer chips should start on a new trend when it comes to throughput / energy cost as AI is now involved at more levels of chip design. Robotics for consumers will be further teased at but still limited by energy storage.
• Knowledge started to be pooled together. Think Wikipedia but on steroids
• Education reform begins outside of government, AI led on a 1 to 1 level for everyone, not just children when they become an adult.
• Diagnosing of conditions, ailments will start to become automatic with treatment being booked automatically via AI assistants. I can definitely see our life & health will be gamified by our personal assistant.
• Numerous decision making for our future will be done via democracy on our phones once we have been informed on the subject allowing us to make an informed decision when it comes to the broad strokes. Over time some decision making will shift from democracy to options for the person as systems can now accommodate for more positions.
• A new design for the modern home. Standardized systems for electrics, plumbing, etc behind panels that are easy to take off built with layers. No more drilling or cutting into a wall for access. New homes will come in a set of standardized sizes. This standardization is the first step for automation within the home and lays the ground work for easier navigation of the consumer robotics to come.

Beyond this point I can't really say. Its too far out there and I think its trying to guess what the future is like before the internet was a thing. It would be very difficult so I won't go any further than that for myself whilst maintaining any kind of accuracy.

Hopefully we use it to focus on bringing EV charging stations all over, and expanding the rail network etc

How fucking old are you ?

Computers are very fast and can multitask.

I guess we'll see in the not-too-distant future.

I forsee a dramatic expansion of government in the short term as companies lay off workers

As an example, in 1930 only 10% of farms in the USA had electricity, let alone running water. It was not profitable to deliever services to rural areas

Around 1940 80% of farms had electricity. So what happened? Public work programs used the unemployed to do construction and conservation projects all across the USA

AI automation will see dramatic rise of unemployment in the private sector, yet jobs will be made up in public works I think. Anything down to dog attendant.

It will take time to figure out that it makes no sense at all to force people to work when there is no work left to be done.

> not about the possibility of the Moon being cheese instead.

Lol. Good point.