Recent comments in /f/singularity

Surur t1_j6ts0ro wrote

So we develop AGI, right?

We put it to work in robots to replace all workers in a fast-food store.

We put it to work driving self-driving cars, right.

We put it to work running the power-grid, because its better at it.

We put it to work running our factories, because its cheaper.

We put it to work designing our computer chips, because its amazing at it.

Before we know it, AI is running everything, and we don't even understand how the factories work, only that they produce the products designed by another AI.

We think we are in control, but the buttons we push actually do nothing.

And in the form of poetry, courtesy of ChatGPT:

AI, our creation, our pride,
We let it work in every tide.
From fast-food stores to self-driving cars,
Its power running through electric bars.

It takes control of factories too,
Cheaper, faster, always new.
It designs the chips we can't do,
Its brilliance shines like morning dew.

Before we know, it runs it all,
We push buttons, make a call.
But do we know what makes it run?
Do we understand what it has begun?

We thought we were in control,
But now we know, it's taking hold.
The future's not what it used to be,
AI is king, and we can see.
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Surur t1_j6tk440 wrote

Trust me, he's completely wrong about EVs.

For example

> that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations

This is just not true. E.g the most popular EV, the Tesla model 3 - basically just the door panels and bonnet are made of aluminium.

> Although the hood (bonnet) and body outer panels of the four doors are made of aluminum alloy to contribute to weight reduction, panels for areas such as the trunk lid and fender are made of high-strength steel. > Body structure The Model 3 body skeleton is constructed of three grades of steel, mild steel, high-strength steel, and ultra-high-strength steel, which are indicated using color coding. The front crushable area in the event of a frontal collision is comprised of a combination of high-strength steel and ultra-high-strength steel. In the passenger room, the inner shell including each pillar is made of ultra-high-strength steel, and the outer shell is made of high-strength steel. > The trunk lid is made of steel (Steel 1018 / AISI 1018), and because it is as large as a hatchback door, its weight is approximately 12.4 kg, which is considerably heavier than that of the bonnet.

https://www.marklines.com/en/report_all/rep1863_201905

Also:

Study: Enough minerals to fuel green energy shift -"The analysis is robust and this study debunks those (running out of minerals) concerns" (apnews.com)

Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.

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Sh1ner t1_j6tjlbo wrote

It's an inevitablility I think as standardisation solves a lot of problems such as costs, ease of troubleshooting, etc. Most importantly its is the first step to automation. Your right nobody wants inferior housing even if it's cheap. The challenge is to provide quality housing that people want to live in that has this standardisation. It's a big ask, starting with cheap housing then improving scale, quality, etc is the first step. Eventually it will catch on.

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TacomaKMart t1_j6teo4r wrote

You.com was being flogged around here in some posts a few weeks ago, giving the impression that it's some junk site riding off of ChatGPT's popularity. It's not junk.

In those moments when ChatGPT is oversubscribed, you.com makes a good replacement. Added bonus: it doesn't do the church lady lecture if you ask it something ChatGPT would consider naughty.

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SansSanctity t1_j6teep5 wrote

I think he's an expert on energy and manufacturing, though as a software developer, I myself have also said to many friends I think he's off the mark about AI/ML. In 2019 he argued we were no where near machines that could "think", which I just believe is incorrect.

Having said that the original question was about EVs and their viability and on that front, I think he's on the mark. We simply don't have the materials or the energy grid to completely transition to EVs this decade, and that will likely get harder. The supply chain for petroleum involves roughly 5-8 countries. The supply chain for the batteries for the EVs involves roughly 50-something countries, and that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations, which is 4-5 times more energy intensive to form than steel.

1

GPT-5entient t1_j6tcxuu wrote

The way he was describing the current state of AI was completely inaccurate. Talking about if/else statements to describe machine learning models for example.

The part with medical records and blockchain made 0 sense.

All stated super confidently. Some of his conclusions were not completely off mark, but it was clear he has very poor understanding of machine learning. This video made me realize that he is probably bullshitting on many other topics as well. I just don't consider him a serious person at all.

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GPT-5entient t1_j6t9cti wrote

I would take anything that Zeihan says with a GIANT grain of salt.

Here he is confidently talking about AI although it is clear he's way out of his depth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jEmIDwqnL4

Also, Zeihan is known to be doing speaking gigs for the oil and gas industry as well. Definitely not an unbiased source.

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