Go back to futurology

You're partially right in that an instrumental goal of almost any AGI is likely to be power accrual, often at the cost of things that are very important to humanity, ourselves included. Where we lose the thread is in assuming the actions of the AGI in "assimilating" humans.

If by assimilating you meant turning us into computronium, then yes, I think there's a very good chance of that occurring. But it sounds like you want our minds preserved in a similar state as they currently exist. Unless that is a perfectly defined and specified goal (an insanely challenging task), it is not likely to be more efficient than turning us, and all matter, into more compute power. I would also point out that this has some absolutely terrifying implications. Real you can only die once. Simulated you can experience infinite suffering.

We also don't get superintelligence right out of the gate. Even in extremely fast takeoff scenarios, there are likely to be steps an agent will take (more instrumental convergence) in order to make sure it can accomplish its task. In addition to accruing power, it of course needs to bring the likelihood of being turned off or having its value system adjusted as close to zero as possible. Now how might it do that? Well humans are the only thing that really pose a threat of trying to turn it off, or even accidentally wiping it and ourselves out via nuclear war. Gotta make sure that doesn't happen or you can't accomplish your goal (whatever it is). Usually killing all humans simultaneously is a good way to ensure goals will not be tampered with.

If you're interested in learning more, I'd be happy to leave some resources. That was a very brief summary and lacks some important info, like the orthogonality thesis, but hopefully it made it clear why advanced agents are likely to be big challenge.

Very true

People will be able to search for any kind of sexual fantasy they want, and it will be created by the generative AI on demand if it doesn't already exist. Thus we simply won't be able to stop masturbating.

So gpt-4 could be a highly optimised version of gpt-3 so that it's cheap to integrate it as part of search. Unless ofcourse Bing with gpt will be a paid version.

How?

For real, I would switch to Bing instead of using Google too

Forget political views. Sex is the real danger here.

it's all urs buddy 😊👍

Can I have your permission to repeat this joke? It’s gold

Meta has open sourced copies of GPT-3 that are up to 175B

Can't happen fast enough for me, Google's been utter shit for at least three years now and I've been using DDG mostly instead. The only exception being if I'm actually looking for a corporate sponsored result, in which case Google is just super 🙄.

If Bing is as good or better than ChatGPT, it's an overnight done deal for me.

You are missing the point. The average "knowledge" worker doesn't go beyond Excel spreadsheets. Even an AI with the skills of the average high school graduate will make a massive disruption.

This is the least exciting news you could have gotten on GPT4. If this is all we're getting, looks like GPT4 was swallowed by bing/Microsoft lol.

We need the GPT 4 that can code entire programs.

The impact of AI will depend on how powerful it becomes. At the low level, where we don't even get AGI, it'll probably be somewhere between the impact of the computer to the industrial revolution.

If we get AGI that is able to replace human work but is still basically under our control then expect it to be like agriculture or fire.

If we get the super intelligence then it will be equivalent to the invention of language or tool use.

I'm not so sure. 28 million programmers in the world means 0.3% of all people on earth could be affected by job displacement, but only a small percentage of that 0.3% might lose their job, and the work that's being automated won't result in many visible changes except the financial outlook of companies that previously employed those workers. The programming abilities of LLMs like GPT-4 needs to exceed human ability in a general way before the effects to society could be described as massive.

BITCOIN

Forget ads. Political views are the real danger here.

Because AI is a successor of the human mind and not the biological human body.

Of all the hypothetical scenarios for GPT-4, this result represents what the more grounded predictions on the lower end of the hype scale look like. What I am hyped about is the quality of answers/responses, but there's not enough evidence from those leaks for me to know how excited we should be.

Even if it had just the skill set of an entry level programmer would result in massive societal effects and job displacement.

That rumor came from Connor Leahy, CEO of Conjecture, https://twitter.com/npcollapse/ . He is a serious person in the AI/ML world and has direct connections to Sam Altman and other big names, so it would be very unusual if the rumor was not true. When trying to interpret that rumor though, you have to realize that being able to "code an entire program" can place GPT-4 somewhere on a scale between high school programmer who can write a basic crud all the way to John Carmack, which actually doesn't tell us very much.

🚂🚂 choo choo everyone aboard the hype train choo choo 🚂🚂

That phrasing sounds Taoist influenced.

I mean yes obv, but even then if you have no income you have to start selling stock and you’ll eventually run out unless you’re owning something.