Agree. It's just getting more and more addictive is what I'm trying to say. When smartphones came out, nobody was glued to their screen all the time. With social media things got progressively worse over time. Average screentime per day went from minutes to hours. AI will just allow you to make you even more addicted if you don't watch out.

I'm not saying artificial intelligence is the devil, it simply helps you amplify good and bad things by a big magnitude.

You don't need AI to have porn and games 24/7, and still can't see more than 1% of what is published. Same for music, books, movies, hobbies. In the future we're going to add AI on top, but the mountain was already pretty high.

No, you're thinking AI can do this alone. Let me tell you - it can't. If it has 1% error rate in information extraction from documents, you need to manually verify everything. Like Tesla's SDC, 99% there is nothing groundbreaking.

I have been working on this very task for 5+ years. I know every paper and model there is. I tested all public APIs for this task. I extensively used GPT-3 for it, and that's my professional judgement.

As for AI validation, it can be 10x more comfortable than manual information extraction, but still requires about 50% of the manual effort. It is not making people suddenly 10x more effective.

Not even OCR is 100% accurate. The best systems have 95% accuracy on noisy document scans. One digit or comma could make the whole transaction absurd, if you send those money without checking you could go in bankruptcy.

The best models we have today are good at generating correct answers 90% of the time - code, factual questions, reasoning. They can do it all but not perfectly. We don't know the risks and can't use this level of confidence without human in the loop.

That depends a lot on context window size - if it's 4K or 8K tokens like today, it won't cut it. For full app coding you need to be able to load dozens of files.

Related to this - if we get, say... 100K context size, we could just "talk to books" or "talk to scientific papers".

Wow! When was this released?

Google isn't what it was. They're already comparable IMO.

Where we go we don’t need GitHub anymore :-)

https://opt.alpa.ai

It doesn't make any sense to me. Why go for technology that is not proven yet? The ChatGPT servers are overwhelmed with a model that presumably is simpler than GPT 4. And they are going to roll out a GA product just like that? I think that they are doing whatever perplexity.ai and lexii are doing. So no code generation in Bing. Maybe in Copilot. But I think the use case will be: I want to do test driven development. I wrote the tests, now give me the actual code. Or the opposite.

I don't believe that you can give GPT 4 a user story and that it can churn out code. How would it know the business specific terms? Product owners are really good at making them up, you know? My friend Fred says that it will come down to creating lists of sentences and feeding them to sentence transformers. That's doable. You need some GPUs and time. Hopefully this will help translate from the domain to general for GPT 4.

The ones who realize, that once you have a genie at your hands that fulfills all your wishes, wishing for porn and videogames 24/7 will push you in a bottomless pit. As a society, we're already struggeling with all the bad things that exploit our primitive desires (fast food, sugar, ..) if you can't control your urges here, there's a high probability of you getting lost in the woods of the digital realm and being seduced by the powers that'll drag you in.

Which ones?

Alternative Theory, my opinion:

AGI is coming and Google knows it. Sooner than anyone expected.

AGI will be able to rapidly replace all knowledge workers, at least the current skillets they have.

Without some kind of regulation, you're dealing with a huge amount of unemployment in the US.

I'm not sure if regulating AI to make sure it doesn't displace everyone in the white-collar economy is a bad thing.

AI is already heavily used in ad-targeting.

My understanding of transformer technology (as present at least) is that it's very hard to update. So a (near) real time GPT3.5/4 isn't possible without a fundamental technological breakthrough, which based on various interviews I'm fairly sure hasn't happened yet.

>Forget Sex.

If only I could...

If the rumors aren't fake, then Google/Alphabet is right now in Washington D.C. and lobbying like crazy to curtail AI development in Congress. Not due dangers to Humanity. Nah! They no longer care about that--remember, they removed the “Do no evil” from their motto. But because they were asleep at the wheel until right now, and then woke up and got the mother of all frights at the prospect of losing their entire business to new tech. Gee. Karma perhaps?

Part of me thinks that they’re using the hype surrounding GPT-4 as a marketing tool. Especially with Sam Altman tempering expectations in his recent interview. There is clearly a ton of misinformation about what it’s truly capable of so why not just market a slightly better version of GPT-3/3.5 integrated into Bing and just call it GPT-4?…Or just drop a bomb on everyone and release the beast.. 🤞

Forget Sex. Extinction of decent human beings is the real danger here.

Imagine a couple months ago hearing someone say they’re ditching google for bing.. Exciting times.

Much easier.

Ah X)

So basically the same as now? Just even easier?

The “cost of living” argument, which is extremely common online, is a cope. It’s education and technology. There is social science backing the claim that educating women reduces birth rates and this is happening across the globe at different rates. The world is increasingly urbanizing. Children are more of a burden in a city than in an agricultural setting where they can help out.

People in poorer countries almost always have more kids than those in wealthier countries and the birth rate for the poor in America is higher than the middle class. If you really want a child, you’ll make it work as people did for thousands of years. It’s okay if people don’t, but they shouldn’t hide behind “cost of living”.

[deleted]

Really? You got links?

Nah.