I don't fault anyone for doing that tbh. A lot of people already feel disillusioned from society because of the lack of effective politics and community. Still, it'd be a sad existence to live in private with other people who ultimately felt their innately human ideas didn't matter for the rest of society.

The alternative of a "singularity" (whatever that means there's a billion definitions) seems like a mixed bag.

Best case scenario, if labor can be entirely automated then the only "job" would be political discussion and philosophy, and "nations" would dictate what direction to steer the AI in (space exploration? gene editing? psychedelic exploration?) People would still do their chores and hobbies, and maybe they'll treat them as "jobs", but ultimately everyone would be working for the "government" out of necessity. People won't "work" and instead would have all the time in the world to contemplate and use human intellect in expanding their own humanity. This hypothetical is if AI is treated as a tool rather than a savior.

The worst case scenario would be a hivemind-esque AI system people are plugged into. Where the private sphere has entirely banished and any differentiation (humanity) is erased. These "Humans" would have transcended their bodies and be floating minds operating within an AI-fueled digital/physical space which has full control. By its whims, the Ai could easily determine which minds are to be erased because of their """possible""" harm to others. Inevitably it'd result in a whittling down of humanity into a single animal hivemind where individuals are interchangeable. A benevolent AI's mistaken goal for preserving humanity.

All their jobs have ALREADY been automated to some extent. They could do many things much more efficiently through technology but it doesn't matter to them because they are almost disconnected from the rest of the modern world.

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The very definition of the Singularity is the unprecedented unpredictable nature of the future- and yet people ask to predict it...

>What will happen to the Amish people when the singularity happens?

They will be dealt with.

Chrome Lords

...nothing. They will deny emergent ai like all other electronics.

Their jobs won’t get automated. They’re self sufficient. What happens is that the singularity will stave off global warming and keep the earth in tip top shape for them.

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I heard the amish actually use a lot of technology as long as they don't own it, and of course they still interface with the modern world via commerce e.g. the often run saw mills.

So I imagine they would be confronted by an increasingly bizarre world e.g. imagine of everyone had brain interfaces and communicated telepathically, and they would not be able to talk to people anymore.

I imagine there would be less demand for the things they sell.

Also imagine if people became immortal and any disease can be cured - do they take advantage of the advances or not, and does this affect their retention rate?

Imagine a future with total automation technologies. Everyone besides the wealthy robot-owners is permanently locked out of the labor pool/economic upward social mobility and any revolution would be effortlessly quashed by endless automated surveillance and hordes of kill-drones.

So the majority of humanity starves, then the survivors technologically and culturally backslides with a barter economy exchanging only the comparatively primitive goods people can make themselves. The technocrats become a sort of fair folk-style myth. Stay away from their manors or their robotic security will get you, don't speak disparagingly of them or autonomous keyword-checkers and ubiquitous micro-drone bugs will consider you as a potential subversive revolutionary, etc. Bonus if the technocrats have embraced transhumanism to the point where they're no longer immediately recognizable as human-derived.

Fortunately for everyone else, they increasingly stay isolated in their autonomous fortress-palaces.

The inevitable twist ending would be generations later when the machines to repair the machines to repair the machines, etc of the automated manor security systems finally broke down, the first steam-age explorers to enter would find billions of dormant holodecks filled with billions of mummified corpses, all with enormous smiles on their faces.

The same thing that happened when electricity and taxi drivers and airplanes and self driving tractors and 3D printed houses etc came out?

Nothing

Amish people support each other as a community and will probably be the least effected group of all by the singularity. It's even a trope in sci-fi where super advanced civilizations with FTL travel and replicators that can print out anything, will often regress back to rural farmers again just for fun

Speciation

IMO that's part of what they have to calculate for relevant. I'm also extremely thrifty and browse sites like slickdeals before I buy anything.

An AI with my search history should pretty easily be able to tell "Okay he just made a big purchase for a $2,000 GPU so he isn't going to be spending much again for a while.

Instead, what about some super cheap stuff that he might need instead. He searched for 'how to unfreeze windshield wipers from windshield in ice' so maybe an advertisement for 35% off a set of windshield wipers for his car which is model XYZ will be enticing?"

IMO that's the main power of an AI ad engine. It should be able to use common sense and make a personality profile for what I'm actually likely to care about, and then budget it for me. It should also know who's extremely thrifty and won't buy without a discount, and offer you a reason to actually buy it

They won't get automated. They work as farm labourers, carpenters, seamstresses, blacksmiths etc who work for each other on land they own. They never used the tech in the first place.

It's an interesting point though as this points towards a great bifurcation of humanity; between humans and transhumans. I think you will see a new class of landowners who will want to perpetuate life as it roughly exists for humans today, a sort of Amish for the late 20th century, and lots of people who feel aggrieved by automation that they want to continue to live a life they recognise.

The rest of us will be more open to the rapid changes on the horizon and view technological augmentation of humanity an extension of our identity, or a means of escaping the trappings of humanity altogether.

The thing is that all subs start to blend in each other a bit lately. r/ChatGPT, /r/futurology, r/artificial and this sub.

I have a limited programming back ground. But I was out of date with GPT models. But for a time I thought that it would be better to have a predictive model that can plan ahead. Atleast that was my mindset.

It's a cool thought!

I honestly think there might be something to elevating a human (something at least more inherently aligned with our goals and thinking) in lieu of a totally code-based agent.

There's another sticking point here, though, that I don't seem to have communicated well. Hitting AGI/Superintelligence is insanely risky. Full stop. Like 95%+ percent chance total destruction of reality.

It isn't about whether the agent is "conscious" or "sentient" or "sapient".

The orthogonality thesis is important in understanding the control problem (alignment of an agent). This video can explain it better than I can, but the idea is, any level of intelligence can exist alongside any goal set. A crazy simple motivation e.g. making paperclips, could be paired with a god-like intelligence. That intelligence is likely to in no way resemble human thinking or motivations, unless we have been able to perfectly imbed them BEFORE it was trained up to reach superintelligence.

So we must perfectly align proto AGI BEFORE it becomes AGI, and if we fail to do so on the first try (we have a horrendous track record with much easier agents) we probably all die. This write up is a bit technical, but scanning it should give you some better context and examples.

I love that you've taken an interest in these topics and really hope you continue learning and exploring. I think it's the most important problem humanity has ever faced and we need as many minds as possible working on it.

Just out of curiosity, what is your education on the subject? I find it kind of strange or I guess inconsistent that you’re talking about multimodal LLMs and their necessity, but don’t know about OPT, InstructGPT, or why an Instruct model would be better than a predictive model

Search any company’s income statement and look at the various line items for examples.

Wow that's so cool! To get Proto AGI, we definitely need an all in one multimodal LLM

Haha, AWS actually just released one of these 2 days ago that’s waaaaay smaller but actually outperforms GPT-3 on reasoning tasks.

Here is the link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00923

Oh ok. I see now thanks for explaining. Maybe they'll make a solveGPT that can actually solve things someday lol!

What exactly don’t you understand?

Following instructions makes it better because these models are by nature predictive. They don’t understand what you are saying, and are created to predict the next text after the input. By nature, the models basically have an implicit prompt that says “what follows this input:”. This is much less useful than following instructions, because in the real world, there is less money/productivity to be gained by predicting the next text sequence, and more to be gained by completing tasks that you ask it to.

But I don't Understand. How does following directions make it better?