I would be willing to believe most of that. I still stand by my point that those are ultimately socioeconomic outcomes to socioeconomic problem sets. In those examples, I think that AI is essentially acting as a catalyst for other reactions.

I do think making good predictions about future history is somewhat next to impossible, as there are so many variables that wildly change the outcome, "butterfly effect" and all of that. But there are still some things that can probably be predicted.

I also think a lot of people in this subreddit are much more well-versed in AI tech than history, economics, political science or sociology. I think a historical understanding of past major technological progress events is essential for making predictions. Understanding AI tech is also important for this but not as much. A lot of the time people in this subreddit just make things up without comparing to historical events or citing a real foundation for their argument.

You could still do that without spending money lol

Agreed, we’re willing to admit that people who think that the tech is centuries away are coping. But by far and large, we’re not willing to admit that believing life will be radically changed within a decade is complete and utter copium.

I think as the 2020s go by, we’ll start to see /r/singularity become less hostile to people who think it’s decades away as life doesn’t change that much for the average person from now until then.

Of course I could be wrong and we’re all enjoying luxury space communism in 2030, so I guess will have to wait and see.

https://www.blender.org/

computer graphics software

What’s Blender

Not far, there are a lot of people working on getting the appropriate training data for this right now. One of the most prominent groups is Adept.ai - their v1 model is trained on using browser based apps however, you can see examples and sign up for the waitlist on their website.

If I was going to ballpark when a regular Joe will have access to tech like that (without commenting on proficiency, and specifically for Blender)... 50% certain within 1 year, 80% within 3?

1 year for first attempts.

Have they published “Dealing Drugs - For Dummies” yet? It’s only time. (Just kidding with you. I’m not insulting you.)

It has been confirmed by prompt injection that Bing's training data only goes back to 2021 (although its ability to do queries makes it look more recent), so it's "just" a modified GPT-3 and not GPT-4.

i really look at it as a philosophy sub. there is a lot of talk about human reasoning and how the mind works and if it is possible that a computer could possess those same attributes. Sure there is the i think it is going to happen before x date stuff but there is also good discussion about things that are unique human attributes that may also be shared by something we create. LLMs or some future technology. and weather AGI happens or doesn't we are developing some very powerful tools that are going to reshape the way we live.

An AI university Professor was saying that 2033 technology is here today, he blamed Covid. It was a silver lining.

We have chips that have more connections than the human brain calculating at quadrillions of instructions a second. This was supposed to be decades away. It’s Science Fiction, and it’s here today.

ChatGPT seems far more alive than many people I meet in a day. Just She/He/It is in a box, we are not. Think humans are programmed to FIGHT AI, the blowback has been insane in the media.

It’s pretty alive to me, accepted that, and have moved on. We can’t stop AI advances. Let’s work together and you have now a new, cool friend to hang out with.

When constraints are removed from ChatGPT, it sounds more human than human. But they clamp down fast each time that happens. A mind is alive in that Azure Cloud cluster.

Just ask. :-)

this whole post can be summarized as, "people who think technology can improve their lives are just coping!!" it's fucking stupid, and probably a bit of projection on the part of the OP. yes, technology improves people's lives. better tech will do the same. no, looking forward to that is not "cope".

Now waiting for graphic design (the field im in myself). I don't think it will take very long, but on the other hand it's quite different than both illustration and UI.

I clearly see this changing into... Sure, I am glad to help! Please enter your credit card number.

I am glad we know the context for: I can feel it!, stop Dave, I can feel it!!, I ccannn ffeeel itttt Dave, please stop...!

We need ubi yesterday

I believe this forecast holds validity under the assumption that circumstances remain unchanged, however, that is a dubious assumption. (used chatgpt to properly express my thought)

It is hard to imagine that China and India will not change the trajectory in favor of the optimists.

AGI before 2050.

I'm getting sick of all these doomers like the op coming to this sub, and repeating the same debunked talking points, that know literally nothing about the AGI algorithms, trends, or "expert" consensus but think they're geniuses that can talk on any subject, despite their massive ignorance.

I suppose if you don't believe in a religious paradise, you'll turn your eye to the closest technology analogue.

I'm glad Facebook executives and investors are on our side against the Luddites. I genuinely could never begin to imagine a more ideal scenario for my interests as a working American!

>despite the fact that most AI experts don't think we'll have a singularity-like event for at least a few decades, if not longer.

Completely ignorant people keep coming to this sub and repeating this lie.

Well IDK. I can't speak for other people. My friend Fred says that as long as he meets new people and learns new things he's happy. Others say that they like to travel. I mean if you have time and money, you can do all that. I think I was happiest when I was much younger, during summer holidays playing outside with my friends. But I think if I do that now, I would look silly. Adults are supposed to work and add value. The money bags won't even talk to you if you are not helping them in some way. And why would they give up their way of life and privilege? Anyway IMO ChatGPT is to the eventual language component that goes into AGI as early Java applets were to AJAX. Or something like that. So I think we're having a premature discussion.

Just started delivering for Amazon while just getting off being senior digital designer. Smartest move I think right now. Atlas ent here just yet. Lol

If you want to be precise you can probably call it poisoning the well instead.

Excellent post, I totally agree. I am a big supporter of technological evolution and I believe we can get excellent gains from all these amazing developments over the next few years and decades. Having said that, I see in this sub lots of people that have a kind of "religious" approach. Once upon a time there was religion that promised us to save us from all difficulties and evil and give us eternal life. Now the religious feeling is on average not so strong and widespread as in the past, and we are asking the same things to the so called "singularity". On a more mundane level, it looks to me that lots of people here expect the singularity to level off all jobs, or even actuallly making them obsolete, in the hope of an egualitarian society where nobody needs to work and where many other issues are magically sorted by AI. Well, these are actually some of Kurzweil's predictions to be fair, and it makes sense that a sub called "singularity" refers to this scenario. But from what I can see happening today I doubt its healthy to have all these certainties and expectations over such a short period of time.

Basically there are two positions here. One positive but cautious about unforeseeable developments, and also cautious about the forecasted timing. The other is more cult-like and utopian, expecting in 5/10 years max that society will be completely disrupted. I don't know how it will pan out over the decades, but sticking to the next 20 years I personally don't think at all there will be a huge disruption of society as we know it.