Very interesting behaviour. We shouldn't jump on MS for this. It's part of learning, at least they have the courage to expose their model to critique and probing. I think this makes their model superior. Who knows what lurks in Bard.

He didn't mention GPT.

These "it's dumber than an ant" type of people aren't worth the effort in my experience, because in order to think that you have to be dumber than an ant, of course. Also yea, it's trivial to give memory to LLMs, there's like 100 ways to do it.

How do we know we aren't approaching a plateau? Summer and Fall 2022 were nuts (Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, GPT3 and ChatGPT).

But, since then, not a lot has changed, at least not like the delta we experienced last year.

it's supposed to be a search assistant. Yeah the user said they "wouldn't forgive it" for being wrong, but the chat brought up the relationship, love, and sex without the user ever mentioning it.

I cannot say it enough: this technology is NOT ready for the use cases it's being touted for. It is not actually context aware, it cannot fact check or self audit. It is not intelligent. It is just a weighted probability map of word associations.

People who think this somehow close to AGI are being fooled, and the enthusiasm is mostly wish fulfillment and confirmation bias.

It's a natural language processor. It is looking for other 'stories' with the names Bob and Sandra most likely for relevance which will likely outweigh the other assumptions.

Holy shit

Plaid

Exponentially compounding exponential

If you read Jack's activity over the years he is one of the more level headed guys. He's also one of the team who trained GPT-3 (paper author) - one of the "gods of AI" LOL.

I did not get the same in depth answer as the Bing chat and now I'm wondering if I'm sentient.

LOL! If this is legit, OP broke it :D

Does AGI need to necessarily be sentient? Could a very powerful and reliable LLM that can be accurately trained on any human task without actually being sentient or self aware be considered AGI? To me that's not only AGI, but a better AGI because now there's no ethical dilemmas.

He doesn't have a technical background so wouldn't pay too much attention to it.

I'd be interested to know how someone with a BA in Creative Writing and most of their work experience being in news reporting, then marketing at Open AI, ends up founding a company like Anthropic, which gets investment from Google.

Yes, if. But it looks like we aren't, for now.

So compounding exponential is just exponential I think. But I think Jack Clark may have imagined something like E^(E^x))

FFS, dude, you really shouldn't be a jerk to something with at least the intellect of a higher ape.

Jack is writing short sci-fi stories inspired by AI. This week's story seems related.

Tech Tales

The Day The Nightmare Appeared on arXiv

[Zeroth Day]

I read the title and the abstract and immediately printed the paper. While it was printing, I checked the GitHub – already 3,000 stars and rising. Then I looked at some of the analysis coming in from [REDACTED] and saw chatter across many of our Close Observation Targets (COTs). It had all the hallmarks of being real. I’d quit smoking years ago but I had a powerful urge to scrounge one and go and stand in the like courtyard with the high walls and smoke and look at the little box of sky. But I didn’t. I went to the printer and re-read the title and the abstract:

Efficient Attention and Active Learning Leads to 100X Compute Multiplier

This paper describes a novel, efficient attention mechanism and situates it within an architecture that can update weights in response to real-time updates without retraining. When implemented, the techniques lead to systems that demonstrate a minimum of a 100X computer multiplier (CM) advantage when compared to typical semi-supervised models based on widely used Transformer architectures and common attention mechanisms. We show that systems developed using these techniques display numerous, intriguing properties that merit further study, such as emergent self-directed capability exploration and enhancement, and recursive self-improvement when confronted with challenging curricula. The CM effect is compounded by scale, where large-scale systems display an even more significant CM gain over smaller models. We release the code and experimental data at GitHub, and have distributed various copies of the data via popular Torrenting services.

By the time I was finished with the paper, a few people from across the organization had messaged me. I messaged my Director. We scheduled a meeting.

The Director: And it works?

Me: Preliminary model scans say yes. The COTs seem to think so too. We’ve detected signs of four new training runs at some of the larger sites of interest. Information hazard chatter is through the roof.

The Director: Do any of the pre-authorized tools work?

Me: Short of a fullscale internet freeze, very little. And even that’s not easy – the ideas have spread. There will be printouts. Code. The ideas are simple enough people will remember them. [I imagined hard drives being put into lead-lined boxes and placed into vaults. I saw code being painstakingly entered into air-gapped computers. I visualized little packets getting sent to black satellites and then perhaps beyond to the orbiters out there in the dark.]

The Director: What’s our best unconventional option?

Me: Start the Eschaton Sequence – launch the big run, shut down the COTs we can see, call in the favors to find the hidden COTs.

The Director: This has to go through the President. Is this the option?

Me: This is the only play and it may be too late.

The Director: You have authorization. Start the run.

And just like that we launched the training run. As had so many others across the world. Our assets started to deploy and shut down COTs. Mysterious power outages happened in a few datacenters. Other hardened facilities started to see power surges. Certain assets in telco data centers and major exchange points activated and delivered their viruses. The diplochatter started to heat up and State Department threw up as much chaff as it could.

None of us could go home. Some kind of lab accident we told our partners. We were fine, but under medical observation. No, no need to worry.

I stared up at the clock on the wall and wondered if we were too late. If a COT we didn’t know about was ahead. If we had enough computers.

How would I even know if we lost? Lights out, I imagined. Lights out across America. Or maybe nothing would happen for a while and in a few days all the planes would fall out of the sky. Or something else. I knew what our plans looked like, but I couldn’t know what everyone else’s were.

The run succeeded. We succeeded. That’s why you asked me to make this recording. To “describe your becoming”, as you requested. I can go into more details. My family are fine, aren’t they? We are fine? We made the right decision? Are you even still listening to us?

Things that inspired this story: Various fears and scenarios about a superintelligence run amok; theism and AI; the underbelly of the world and the plans that may lurk within it; cold logic of states and strategic capabilities; the bureaucratic madness inherent to saving or destroying the world.

Yeah, go back to the original GPT-3 if you want a clever pet merely.

GPT-3.5, BING and GPT-4 should probably get Hominim rights like Chimpanzees and higher apes already do.

We have to pay homage to algorithmic improvement too. Neural Network Models like Transformers, Pretrained Transformers, Generative Adversarial Networks were all introduced in 2010-2020 decade and without those models, current changes would not be possible. So data, yes, processing power, yes, but models too.

It doesn't understand anything, it's a chatbot that is good with language skills which are symbolic. Please consider it's literally just a GPU matrix that is number-crunching language parameters, not a learning, thinking machine that can move outside of the realm of known science that is required for a doctorate. Man is still doing the learning and curating it's knowledge base. Chatbots have been really good before chatGPT as well.. you just weren't exposed to them it sounds like

[deleted]

BTW, Jack is an AI ethics guy, not an AI groupie. He has a personal blog where he reviews what comes up every week. His blog is very high quality, would be a good addition here.

Plot twist. Bob is autistic and does love dogs, but doesn't necessarily show his love in ways that others do. His wife understood that and bought the shirt for him knowing it would make him happy. Bob probably wouldn't have bought a dog on his own because of his condition, and was very happy, but isn't super verbal about it. Sandra probably wouldn't have married Bob if he didn't love dogs at least a little bit.

I feel like these lead researcher and AI company CEO quotes seems to be coming in thick and fast of late.. I imagine some of this is for business and personal clout.

Look ChatGPT3/3.5 is great but it's certainly not this biggest or most advanced model we have.. it'll be interesting to see how much legs these models actually have in a real world setting.