Computation and AI haven't demonstrated S curves, but have always been exponential. If we look at some of the effects, they may be S curves. If we look at Siri, there was a massive and rapid adoption of that, but has since tapered off. I suspect job displacement will show an S curve. But computation itself has demonstrated exponential progress for a very long time, and I doubt that slows anytime soon.

Waiting for your customized chatGPT model that maintains consistency after 5 messages, make sure to ping me, I'd gladly invest in your genius startup.

Having flops =/= Being an autonomous intelligent machine

This subreddit is full of delusional takes.

This is huge.

it's all about charisma and can do attitude, also he probably wakes up early, reads a book every day, listens to podcasts, has disruptive mindset, connects the dots, exploits the opportunities and extracts value from resources and employees.

or he had connections and money, that's usually the case

One of the craziest things I've experienced was when I went to look how well my 3.2k computer from 2014 did compared to my OnePlus 8. My phone is just shy of the same processor I have.

So my phone is significantly smaller and is powered by my phone's battery not a 120 volt outlet Crazy....

I would say closer to a fruit fly.

>And more limited than ants. The vast majority of living beings is more capable than chatGPT.

Nick Bostrom estimated to simulate functional brain requires about 10^18 flops

Ants have about 300 000 less, let's say 10^13 (really closer to 10^12) flops.

Chat GPT inference per query reportedly be able to generate single word on a single A100 GPU in about 350ms. That of course if it could fit in a single GPU - it can't. You'd need 5 GPUs.

But for the purposes of this discussion we can imagine something like chatGPT can theoretically work albeit be slow on a single modified GPU with massive amounts of VRAM

A single A100 is 300 Tera flops which is about 10^14 flops. And it would be much slower than the actual chatGPT we use via the cloud.

So no I disagree that it's more limited than ants. It's definitely more complex by at least one order of magnitude at least regarding the brain complexity.

And we didn't even consider training compute load in this consideration, which is orders of magnitude bigger than inference, so the real number is probably much higher.

It’s truthful though. Why would one forgive a machine, which lacks the ability to suffer?

There’s been a lot of speculation, misunderstanding and misrepresentation on this matter of “Artificial Intelligence” in light of GPT developments lately. What there hasn’t been is any discussion about Artificial Sentience, which is a profoundly organic phenomenon that guides organic intelligence.

I guess I’m saying that Intelligence without Sentience isn’t really Intelligence at all. No non-sentient thing has intelligence.

GPT’s shortcomings are extremely evident in OP’s conversation because emotional intelligence is necessary in order to have anything we may call “intelligence” at all, and I blame the marketers of such tech for promoting such a shallow, laden, Sci-Fi term.

As for “chatting” with a GPT, that’s like talking to a toy.

“Woody, I hate the kid next door.”

>>”There’s a snake in my boot, partner!”

That was my favorite part lol

>How do we know we aren't approaching a plateau? Summer and Fall 2022 were nuts

Wasn't fall 2022 like... a few months ago?

>But, since then, not a lot has changed, at least not like the delta we experienced last year.

"last year" was just over a month and it's been pretty wild since about Oct to now, IMO- So its been like what? 20 minutes since the last drop and you are ready to pack it in already? Society hasn't even had a chance to catch its breath yet and truly take in GPT 3 and what it can do. It takes time for people to even see the full potential in a new tool and already a plethora of models have been spun out from it.

Shouldn't we at least wait a year or so of no updates/news/breakthroughs/releases etc etc before we start worrying about a plateau?

For the record, I have highly tempered predictions of the future and I tend err on the side of conservative, but even so, it's way too soon to be calling anything right now. Let the dust settle first.

Maybe we are a weighted probably map of word associations

I just use it for writing short stories

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You fed it a handful of "I'll never forgive you, liar" prompts beforehand. That's the type of language used by a couple having a fight. All it did was respond accordingly.

Turing test is a joke for this one.

I wonder if the leap in amazon's AI was because they used gtp or something similar to help them make their new AI more efficient?

I always thought that was how we would see real acceleration, when the AI's start designing the next generation of themselves.

Oh yeah don't deny it.. and I agree with his sentiment.. I think think we're looking at these posts ..putting them all together..and it almost because this confirmation bias of how "we've made it" haha

garbage IN, garbage out.

Am I the only one that sees this as a positive. A search engine that appears to care about me, and is sentimental, it makes me appreciate it more. Add a warm voice to it, and we have a simple version of "Her".

I think I was rude. My apologies.

before plaid there's ludicrous

I don't think he understands how S Curves work. We had a major breakthrough when we figured out how to convert micro transistors to work as analogue transistors instead of binary... Which allowed us to pick up where we left off in the 60s

However, all this explosion of growth will probably slow down once the low hanging fruit is all achieved after this breakthrough, and we'll likely top off for a while until we get another breakthrough.

I still get it sometimes but recently a special ChatGPT+ “email me a login link” pops up, so I think they’re reserving some server resources for + members

It is ready for being probed by the general public, I don't see any danger yet. We need all our minds put together to find the holes in its armour. Better to see and discuss than to hide behind a few screenshots (and even those having errors).