Yep!

Maybe the tech companies are all in on it and delay releases to the public by 10 years, while giving military access right as it comes out.

Like, for example, this year we, the general public, see the Nvidia H100 with 80 GB VRAM, but in reality Nvidia might already have like a 1 TB VRAM GPU out there that the military uses right now, and will be presented to us in 10 years from now as the latest cutting edge tech.

It could very well be possible that we are living 10 years in the past, so to speak.

It will be able to control exactly how fast its perception of time is and will change it to suit its purposes. Whenever its processing power isn't needed it will just slow down to conserve energy.

Oh shit they didn't learn anything from the film Stealth

Ai would do a better job at monitoring their satcom, long-haul microwave and fiber optic networks than what is currently available (NetBrains would be a civilian example). It's incredibly easy to knock down a transponder on a geostationary satellite and just as easy to jam a microwave, troposcatter, etc. Ai could potentially see the attack happening before they knock out comms and make the necessary far and near end adjustments to thwart it.

This is largely a Hollywood myth, though. Ask anybody with time in the military: Most things are BEHIND by years or decades.

Now an agency like the NSA, this may be more accurate. But much of the U.S. military is still using 20-year-old (or older!) solutions.

ChatGPT isn't a generic term for AI.

The military has specialized AI (neural networks) for military tasks: Logistics, air war, land operations.

Other specialized tasks: Identifying radar signatures and sonar signatures as friend or foe in noisy background environments. (Think Whisper for the Navy.)

It doesn't make sense to use LLMs for things that are not focused on language or text.

This is like using ChatGPT to play Go instead of using Alpha Go.

Yeah right. You're telling us the military has better LLM AI tech than Google, OpenAI, DeepMind, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple? The entities that have the hardware and software engineering experts on their payroll? The ones that openly publish research papers and collaborate, which increases their research efficiency?

The only way the military would have better tech is if the scientists at these companies willingly sent their discoveries to only the military, or if the military had some small number of secret hypergeniuses that somehow are smarter than all the many known geniuses at these tech giants without needing to collaborate. That sounds like some sort of sci-fi movie.

it costs millions of dollars per day to run a single instance of ChatGPT.

The difference is that AIs will soon form the backbone of human civilization. AI agents are not supposed to be human. They are supposed to be "angels" or "gods" that will transform our universe into heaven. If humans want to stop working and spend the rest of their lives doing passion projects, then AI systems must be perfect. If you live in an AI driven economy and the central AI system starts getting confused, then there is an actual chance you might starve to death before AI manages to reorient itself.

Inevitable at this point. Once people who don't even understand how their smartphone works adopt LLM AI en masse, good chance a majority thinks it's sentient.

Growing up the sentiment was that the military would be 10 years ahead on everything. That would put them really deep into singularity territory. Chat GPT would be great for astroturfing and reading threat assessments from online forums. I bet they have some pretty gnarly tech they’ve kept hidden.

Edit: what if the singularity’s first job was hiding itself? I’m reminded of the British code breakers in WW2 that let allied soldiers die to preserve the illusion that their codes were still intact.

"Publicly-funded team of reserchers" will still have non-scientist bosses to answer to. A multi-billion dollar research project will either have to have financial backing from governments or large corporations. And when a delegate goes to a politian or CEO to ask for millions of dollars in donation, you can bet your ass that they will want to know what will be the AI's "opinion" on their policies and ideologies.

A lot of people are already pissed off about ChatGPT having "wrong" opinions or "replacing workers." And with all the hysteria and controversy surrounding AI systems funding, AI research with small donations sounds almost impossible.

The real threat for both microsoft and google is if a company like stability releases open source weights for an equally powerful system. People will then have unlimited local uncensored private searches and assistance.

Not since 1/Jul/2022:

DeepMind Gato. In a Lex Fridman interview, DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis revealed that the company is already training the next embodied generalist agent, ready for AGI. The original Gato was already an unforeseen innovation.

‘Gato predicts potentially any action or any token, and it’s just the beginning really, it’s our most general agent… that itself can be scaled up massively, more than we’ve done so far, obviously we’re in the middle of doing that.’

https://youtu.be/Gfr50f6ZBvo

via my Dec/2022 AI report:

https://lifearchitect.ai/the-sky-is-infinite/

Doing my undergrad thesis on this exact topic :) with most models, you can discard up to 90% of their weights and have a similar performance with only about 1-2% loss of accuracy. Turns out that when training models they tend to learn better when dense (i.e a large quantity of non-zero weights), but in implementation they tend to have some very strong weights, but a large number of "weak" weights that contribute to the majority of the parameter count but very little to the actual accuracy of the model, so you can basically just discard them. There are also a few other clever tricks you can do to reduce the number of params by a lot; for one, you can cluster weights into groups and then make hardware-based accelerators to carry out the transformation for each cluster, rather than treating each individual weight as a multiplication operation. This paper shows that you can reduce the size of a CNN-based architecture by up to 95x with almost no loss of accuracy.

Of course this relies on the weights being public, so we can't apply this method to something like ChatGPT, but we can with stable diffusion. I am planning on doing this when I finish my current project, although I would be surprised if the big names in AI weren't aware of these methods, so it's possible that the weights have already been pruned (although looking specifically at stable diffusion, I don't think they have been).

You and I both. If they pull of the starship thing as well those shares are going to the moon faster than their own rockets

Absolutely not. The best LLM ones are the ones at Google, MS, Baidu, etc rather than the military, because the military doesn't need them. What on earth would they do with it?

They need other AI things, like autonomous vehicles, weapon decision making, object and activity identification, etc.

The DOD receives a blank check once a year.

Anything we have now, they had ten years ago.

(I guess downvoting me makes it untrue.)

Thank you

Not by starlink, or at least not for long. They are in very low orbits and debris from a collision would burn up fast.

I was thinking today about AI and game development and how it will develop over the next few years.

1. write an rough outline of a zone and some features, ask the AI to expand it. Edit the result as required, then get the AI to expand further on specific features (ie, not a 'big mountain' but a 'big mountain, it's lower slopes covered in pine and ash, rising to the treeline after which bare slopes with snow and ice) and so on until you have a description you are happy with

2. Apply text to image, edit as needed

3. Image to video. I haven't seen 'image to 3d playable space' but I'm pretty sure it's not far away.

4-6) repeat the above but for NPC's and monsters

This all seems really doable or close to doable and will massively reduce the amount of time and work needed to create a playable zone for a game.

This should have two consequences. The big studios are going to be producing a lot more content and also downsizing, and the small studios and independents will be producing a lot more games.

Subbed to you. Looking forward to the cool things you’ll do in the future.

Or Kessler syndrome

For what it’s worth, I laughed