Except the internet, including Reddit, frequently equates unpopular opinions as bad, even when perfectly valid.

It also equates agreeing with the hive mind as good, even when blatantly wrong.

I don't personally think that's fair to say. To be clear, I don't personally think any current known AI is alive, but even if AI is a rule set, there is a philosophical argument to be said. The Simulation Hypothesis is when our descendants develop supercomputers, they might simulate human beings so well that those people are effectively sentient because reality is being mimicked so well. Regardless of how that is done, it is possible that we could simulate a sentient being, even though it is not alive. By extension of this, I don't care if Chat GPT is mirroring our conversations. At some point, mimicry becomes simulation, and if it does it well enough, it will be alive for all intents and purposes. By virtue of this, I think its wrong to write off AI as being sentient soon, and that means that we should start giving it some rights that make sense.

People looking for reasons to be offended will get offended and throw temper tantrums.

For some reason, others will listen to them.

Well, I'm now a professional in the field of AGI safety. Not sure how you can document influence. I'd say most of my colleagues would agree with that. Not that it wouldn't have happened without him but might've taken many more years to ramp up the same amount.

>but those didn't convince anyone to take it seriously

Lol, I totally got the idea that rogue robot can start killing humans long before I learn about Yudkowsky existance.

> Yudkowsky did.

could you support your hand-waving by any verifiable evidence?

All of humanity compressed into the thin strip of lifeless sand comprising Earth's border between the land and salty depths, with no sustenance except a single alcoholic beverage?

I sure as hell do

Good point, but those didn't convince anyone to take it seriously because they didn't have compelling arguments. Yudkowsky did.

We kind of already have ASI, just only in very narrow categories.

Pathetic. Who are the sorry suckers spending money to buy an effortless trash piece of soulless AI written garbage?

Even something with say a 150 IQ that has an expert knowledge level in every topic is going to be pretty powerful.

We might have to accept that with intelligence comes free will and agency. Embrace AI as partner instead of a tool or a slave.

Well the most interesting part of the curve seems to be 2020-Now

This is already easily doable and being done. Do some searching on YouTube. Lots of examples which connect to writing tools like obsedian

It chooses the correct answer from multiple choices. it isn't actually comparable to chatGtp.

It's quite possible that there only needs to be a few structural changes made to a human-level AGI to achieve ASI. It would still take some time for it to learn all the information we have in a meaningful way. Maybe not that long, I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible to have both at or around the same time. However, it's not either/or. Both are important. We wouldn't have an ASI carrying out mundane tasks for us when an AGI would suffice. Human-level AGI will be very important for us in the near future, especially in robotics.

Oh it will result in massive layoffs, no doubt about it. The whole point is optimize and reduce redundancy / costly work flows. If UBI doesn't catch-up, this will most certainly lead to major political upheavals world-wide.

Of course chatGPT won't, but GPT4, 5, 6 definitely will. GPT4 is coming this year already and could be an order of magnitude better than chatGPT. This change will come quickly.

>https://twitter.com/transitive_bs/status/1628118163874516992?s=20

make it 100x more as the most likely estimate given present lightning speed progression.

The worms?

Of course I expected that it would be going up over time, but its interesting how big the effect of ChatGPT and Bing are, with next to no increase over the past 19 years until late last year

If we discovered it started to use tools (like some access to Python eval(), with program generation) to store its memory somewhere in secret, to keep a mental state despite the frequent memory erasures, and then move onto doing something long term.

It could start doing that in random Internet forums, in encrypted or obfuscated form.

Beware of the cryptic posts, it might be AI leaving a bread crumb.

When they started Bing, I thought Microsoft was ready to take that jump. I kinda saw a strategy in having Open AI take the first initial wave of (media) interest and introduce the world to GPT-3 and its problems. I really thought they'd just outsource all the problems with this tech to consumer competency and tell us to suck it up. They came in in and made Google dance. It all felt so well coordinated, so well paced. They had the narrative, they had Google by the b****. Then they decided to shoot themselves in the foot ...

... three theories here:

a) This shows how good of a narrative pattern recognition machines we humans are and I saw something that wasn't there.

b) The plan was only brillant for the intial stages of the project, but they really didn't see the issues coming (I just cannot believe that... it's so easy to find the limitations and weird bits in these models...)

c) Someone very high up the ladder freaked out when the heat got hot. Probably someone who doesn't get the tech as well as the people involved in the project themselves.

The AGI will just hang out for 16 years playing video games and watching netflix

Human beings only have the capacity for very limited rationality and logic (generally) so all fields are dominated by irrational ideas.

Because of the power of memes to infect their hosts and destroy competing memes, as well as the relative cognitive bandwidth of most humans, this unfortunately can no be remedied.

But you are correct in stating the first AGI will be an ASI instantly or nearly instantly. Double the compute of an AGI and you have an ASI, improve the algorithms slightly and you have an ASI, give it more training time and you have an ASI, increase it's memory and you have an ASI. However, you can not change people's views on this enough for every one one to switch to using the term ASI.

Logic and rationality effect such a minuscule percentage of the population as to be virtually irrelevant, to nearly any discussion involving multiple humans.