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I'd be very surprised if we didn't have fusion power in 30 years. ;)

https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/why-nuclear-fusion-is-always-30-years-away

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We will probably have a joke like that for AGI as well, always being 30 years away.

I thought the context was artificial neurons, which are executed in microchips.

Now come on, be fair. You know that's not the point I'm making at all.

It's people working in ML research being unable to accurately predict technological advancements, not user numbers.

You might find this section of an interview with Ajeya Cotra (of biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines fame)

Starts at 29.14 https://youtu.be/pJSFuFRc4eU?t=1754

Where she talks about how several benchmarks were past early last year that surveys of ML workers had a median of 2026.
Also she casts doubt on people that are working in the field but are not working on specifically forecasting AGI/TAI directly as a source for useful information.

People were saying the same thing with Dall-E and SD. Technically they were right, but by that time there were already new 'toys' available so the underlying problem is still here, it just shifted from Dall-E to chatGPT. And the same thing will happen again and again at this rate of progress if we don't make up our minds to setup some rules.

Pain is also "simulated" in the brain. It's not like pain is an actual physical object

99% chance of it happening by 2030 is my opinion

That's interesting to me, because I'm almost the opposite. I think of VR as more of a escape, and my Singularity wish list is for augmentations that make it easy to explore the physical world. I want to walk on the bottom of the ocean, or sail through space. I'll use VR to go to Hogwarts though for sure lol

That's the hope. The most fervent hope.

Am I missing something here? We haven’t solved the alignment problem yet, and if we still haven’t by the time we get to AGI then we’re all going to be killed. So that’s what I expect out of AGI.

Not only this, but Google's algorithms rely heavily on humans fixing up their web pages with various tags to help it's algorithm navigate and sort the information into its indice.

ChatGPT works off semantics alone, unlike Google.

I don’t really care if the AI has an agenda if it finds me a really nice terraria build, though. Or tells me how to craft an iron pickax in Minecraft. I’m not exactly going to be forming political opinions through the use of a chat bot anytime soon, trust me.

> kiddo

Wow you must be fun at parties

That would work for me.

I'd be surprised if we don't have one by 2029 at this point. Ray Kurzweil was right all along.

Its almost like humans are social creatures or something that seek validation and interaction. Presumably thats why you're commenting on reddit.

Would be amazed if anyone accurately predicted a LLM chatbot getting to 100m users 2 months after launch in 2022.

We don’t need employment if robots can do our jobs

What algorithm are you running?

Isn’t that where this is all ultimately headed? In its turn, Ai might flip all of these arcane institutions on their heads. If laws can’t keep up, they just might become obsolete to some extent as well. Buckle up.

Long term cap gains on 80k?

The Handy and other things exist. They suck.

The Nimblestroker however is promising. I hope to get mine next month.

Not having to work for living. Amazing new tech and scientific breakthroughs. Life extension. Clean energy and cleanup of the environmental damage we have already done. Space travel and colonization. Renaissance of art and entertainment.

I believe its gen z slang for anyone who uses porn a lot.

Fuck yeah! Fuck yeah! Fuck yeah!