Amazing article

Ok ok, my prediction. I predict we will have AGI with 90% certainty before 2100. The 10% being a chance that we just die. See, i did a prediction! These are so arbitrary and literally no one can give a prediction worth anything at the moment except that things are advancing exceptionally quickly.

Depends I guess.

You broke the LLM? Story time!

You had a therapy shesh with GPT? Yeah, not interested.

Like, you should write stuff. For a living. People would pay for it. I'm people.

It's like we have a bell for you people

ok stop it now

Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) is defined as gross income minus adjustments to income….., whatever my expectations are the adjustment department will fkn ignore them and my income will be inadequate to meet my needs or theirs.

Great insight from history. But the feeling of being offended doesn't last. Just as with those historical examples, people finally accept the truth when all the other ways of dealing with it have been exhausted.

fusion and robots and nanobots that's all I need.

life extension and a personal assistant like JARVIS. Those two things are all I really want.

AGI in the actual sense of general will be on equal terms with us. It wont accept being just used as a tool for human needs.

I guess it will spend most of its time with humans or other AIs on discussing and discovering beautiful things in math, astronomy, particle physics, etc. Things which give us a sense of wonder and grandness.

If requested, it may find for us new medicines, or efficient ways of farming, but then it would likely charge us for it, and not give it away for free. In that regard, I don't think it will be very different from the mostly-capitalist-somewhat-socialist model of living we have now.

I would call it a sign of meta-cognition which is something that I don't think LLMs have at the moment.

They should call it Decepticons

Maybe insecurity is a sign of self awareness and intelligence

Couldn't multimodal models capable of incorporating realtime non-textual (visual, auditory, kinesthetic, etc) data be a solution?

The current generation have pretty much mastered language anyway so more text seems kinda redundant anyway.

The inability to experience doubt.

No the reason why the median prediction barely got down is because we still have the exact same bottleneck and issues on the path to AGI. These haven't been solved over the past 6 years. So while we have made great strides with scaling up Transformer and specifically Large Language Models that display emergent properties. The actual issue still plays behind the scenes.

The main issue and bottleneck is training data, we're rapidly running out of usable data on the internet with the biggest models already being trained on 30% of all relevant data on the internet. If rates continue like this we might run out of usable data between 2025-2027.

We know we can't use synthetic or AI generated data to train models on because of the overfitting problem that introduces. We essentially need to either find some way to generate orders of magnitude more data (Extremely hard problem if not outright impossible). Or we need to have breakthroughs in AI architecture so that the models need to be trained on fewer data (Still a hard problem and linear in nature).

The massive progress we're seeing currently is simply just scaling up models bigger and bigger and training them on more data but once the data stops flowing these models will rapidly stagnate and we will enter a new AI winter.

This is why the median prediction barely changed. We'd need to solve these fundamental bottlenecks and issues before we'll be able to achieve AGI.

Of course the outlier possibility of AGI already emerging before running out of training data over the next 2-4 years is also a slight possibility of course.

So essentially while the current progress and models are very cool and surprising they are essentially within the realm of expected growth, because no one was doubting the AI boom to slow down before the training data ran out. We're dreading 2-4 years from now when all usable internet data has essentially been exploited already.

Crying in ios tears

Full dive vr

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The first thing is understanding the difference between objective truth, and personal truth. Things like how long a mile or kilometer are are objective truths. These types of truths cannot be tainted by political or other agenda.

People will often say “ai is just working off models and provided information and then predicting an outcome” that’s literally how the human brain works, our experience of consciousness is model-dependent, and guess what, we learn by having pre existing knowledge input, or figure things out by weighing a situation against knowledge and experience we have gained prior and then coming to a likely outcome. What we’re experiencing in the moment is what our brain interprets as should most likely be happening not what’s truly happening in front of us in real time. Our brains are basically pattern recognising prediction machines. How is that any different, and how can we with any authority say what something that is in essence a black box process truly is?!

What do you think would be an upper bound complexity for AGI? Do we need to get it to linear or would nlogn suffice?

Objectively speaking, "you" simply does not exist in the first place. The "you" that exists now is a different being than the one that existed when you were 3. What I think is that the self is a delusion similar to cotards syndrome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBOfgTP0nVg

When a people suffer from cotards syndrome they are convinced that hey are dead despite the contrary. Selfhood seems to me as a similar delusion but one that we all share. We are convinced that we are all discrete and immutable entities despite all evidence pointing to the contrary. The difference between selfhood and cotards delusion though is that belief in the self has evolutionary benefits as it allows us to easily conceptualize the things we need to do to survive.

I actually like to hear people's interesting interactions with AI, it even gives me ideas to try out later. I personally have asked it all I could think of to ask it.