Recent comments in /f/singularity

Borrowedshorts t1_je9zb9x wrote

ITER is a complete joke. CERN is doing okay, but doesn't seem to fit the mold of AI research in any way. There's really no basis for holding these up as the models AI research should follow.

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Embarrassed-Bison767 t1_je9y6v3 wrote

If AI won't collapse civilization, the combination of climate change and rappidly diminishing resources leading to a WW III will. Those two things combined have a 100% chance of destroying civilization. AI has a less than 100% chance of doing so. It's the better thing to aim for even with 99.9% certainty of destruction, because destruction with the status quo is garanteed.

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Cartossin t1_je9xz7h wrote

Yeah I think if we're going to pause, that has to come from the US state dept. They have access to spies that can ensure a foreign power does not have a stockpile of chips that could allow them to progress past us.

I suspect they DO have such chip stockpiles, so I'd expect the state dept to advise openAI to continue forward. This is just like the space race of the 1960s, except with vastly higher stakes.

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MichaelsSocks t1_je9x3z0 wrote

> This is 100% an issue that can be solved by humans alone, with or without AI tools.

Could it be solved? Of course, I just highly doubt anything meaningful will get done. We're already pretty much past the point of no return.

> And why do you assume anything close to a 50% chance of paradise when AGI arrives? We literally already live in a post-scarcity society where the profits of automation and education are all going straight to the rich to make them richer, who's to say "Anyone without a billion dollars to their name shouldn't be considered human" won't make it in as the fourth law of robotics?

Because a super intelligent AI would be smart enough to question this, which would make it an ASI in the first place.

> Genuinely: if you're scared about things like climate change, go look up some of the no-brainer solutions to it we already have that you as a voter can push us towards (public transport infrastructure is a great start).

I've been pushing for solutions for years, and yet nothing meaningful has changed. I don't see this changing, especially not within the window we have to actually save the planet.

> Hoping for a type of AI that many experts believe won't even exist for another century

The consensus from the people actually developing AGI (OpenAI and DeepMind) is that AGI will arrive sometime within the next 10-15 years. And the window from AGI to ASI won't be longer than a year under a fast takeoff.

> takes up time you could be spending helping us achieve the very achievable goal of halting climate change!

I've been advocating for solutions for years, but our ability to lobby and wield public policy obviously just can't compete with the influence of multinational corporations.

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UseNew5079 t1_je9wrw6 wrote

Check LLama paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.13971.pdf

Specifically this graph: https://paste.pics/6f817f0aa71065e155027d313d70f18c

They increase performance (reduce loss) with parameters or training time. More parameters just allow for faster and deeper initial drop in error/loss but later part looks the same for all model sizes. At least that is my interpretation.

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