Submitted by Ok-Marsupial8141 t3_10tlw62 in wallstreetbets
I'll try and keep it simple. IMO, jobs are the final pillar holding up the market and they're about to come crashing down in the coming months. Excuse my highly regarded charts, I did the best I could.
1.) The jobs report on Friday was more than double of what people were expecting. The president is even taking a victory lap as the greatest job creator we have ever seen. IMO this is the top.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1621565430316908544?s=20&t=yyos40wLnS5DjxkWQNJIfg
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2.) Below are a couple historical charts from 2000.
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The above chart shows the fed funds rate in March 2000. Very close to peak rates for that cycle. Sound familiar?
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This chart shows the job numbers for 1999 and 2000. The march 2000 jobs report of 485k is an outlier and the top of the jobs market.
3.) IMO, we are currently in another bear market rally and the market will reach new lows in this cycle relatively soon. The Bull party may go through February, but the Bears dance in March and April IMO.
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Full Disclosure: my favorite crayon to munch on is Indigo and I will be including this post on my resume when I apply to Wendys...