What are your opinions on whether the US will have a recession or not?

I did some research related to financial data and also some employment data, here are the key points which made me think that the US might be heading to a recession:

1. GDP growth was a 3.2% in Q4 2022 led by exports ( government's data) but on the other hand the dollar appreciated by more than 7% in Q4 so the increasing currency rate made it delusional that the exports grew, what actually happened was that exports didn't grow instead the currency grew which made the value of exports rise, and because the imports got relatively cheaper the value diminished.

2. The Inventory to sales ratio reached 1.37 by December which is a clear sign that sales are not upto the mark.

3. The lay-offs were high still the unemployment rate didn't increase because of the high employment rate in mining and government services, otherwise if we look at the construction sector the rate is 6.9%, and according to economic models a recession starts when the construction sector's profits decrease as people are not investing and expansion is not feasible in near future.

Ps: I myself believe that there will be a deep recession if interest rates keep increasing.

Edit: I also wanted to add that US should introduce a subject of manipulation instead of economics because that's what leads to success, economics is realy for us geeks.