Submitted by tdogger88 t3_100tndp in wallstreetbets
I have been trading since 2006 and have never seen one side so sure the market is going to crash even more after one of the worst years ever. I follow 12 trading “experts” that I feel are best-in-class and they all see the market still not bottoming until March/April 23’. Almost every “wall street expert” is predicting the market to go lower. Morgan Stanley can’t keep saying it enough that the market is going to 3,300. Puts are at an all time high, literally, everyone is betting on the same thing to happen. I don’t know anyone who has a significant call option for the market to be higher in Q1 of next year.
The thing is about this, is that it’s not like people are waiting on the market to finally fall, it’s been violently falling for an entire year. So much that traders have no faith in stocks anymore as seen with the options chains - and no one wants to touch risk on plays.
What’s the more likely scenario?
- Everyone is right, history repeats itself, except this time everyone is prepared and makes a ton of money off the next leg down on the most crowded trade of the century Or
- Everyone has no clue what will happen. They just expect history to repeat itself and believe that the banks and Wall Street are trying to warn everyone of a market crash because they only have retails best interest in mind and care about you. In this case, the market does what it does best - shakes out the crowded trade until everyone believes the market is going to recover before pulling the rug once put volume comes way down.
TLDR: What’s your thought on the most crowded trade of the century? Is the market going to reward everyone and the next leg down is coming in Q1 23’ - or does crashing inflation hold the market up until put holders are exhausted and only starts the next leg down when everyone lease expects it?