Recent comments in /f/wallstreetbets

y90210 t1_j6l2sy4 wrote

Reply to comment by TheBlackWindXIV in Game Theory: The war will end soon, oil will plummet, Biden will get re-elected by mlamping

Fed won't do anything but raise rates in 2023, they already said that. And they don't want to stop and reverse too early because it would make things worse. All that's happening right now is a slowing of the rate of inflation but costs are still elevated. Powell also said his goal is to slow inflation in large part by preventing wage inflation (people being paid more). Which also means he seeks to increase unemployment as a way to reach their goal. Unemployment is still too low, so hikes will continue.

End of the war doesn't fix the issues we face. And usually the bottom of the market occurs AFTER the fed has pivoted.

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AR475891 t1_j6l2j4i wrote

Reply to comment by animalover69 in Game Theory: The war will end soon, oil will plummet, Biden will get re-elected by mlamping

GOP has an old voter problem. They have basically put all their effort into making everyone under 45 hate them and roughly 55% of their national popular vote in 2020 was over 65. Sure some younger folks may have voted GOP in 2020 and will continue to do so but how many people do you think that voted for Biden in general during 2020 are likely to flip? Particularly young people?

Besides, roughly 55% of people who voted for trump last time were over 65 and his strongest voter demographic was silent gen members every year. In fact the only majority GOP voting group by age is over 65. Roughly 3 million people die a year naturally and that’s probably 98% old folks. Using the same participation rate of 70% for this demographic during the 2020 election They are looking to lose between 4.5-5 million voters due to deaths alone. These voters are being replaced by gen zers who vote 65 -35 Dem.

Not saying it’s impossible, but as long as the economy isnt in a deep recession DURING the election a GOP win is not likely.

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