Recent comments in /f/wallstreetbets

Magnasparta1 t1_j8uyhmd wrote

Reply to Question for the šŸ³ļøā€šŸŒˆ bears (Iā€™m one too) by ProsaicPansy

You are shorting too soon. Last year the bulls let bears run wild. This year the bulls have convinced themselves with statistics that benefit their own narrative.

ā€œThe market has only every been red for two years consecutive four timesā€ā€X percentage of the time January is green, the year ends greenā€

These are all narratives that remove the underlying cause for the final result. WHY in these scenarios, did the year turn green? Did things change? More than likely the issues were resolved within the year leading to a green result.

If we analyze what the problem now and determine if we can resolve it in a year, it is more likely not possible. This will not stop the bulls from completely ignoring data that works against them.

Not only that but there are more bulls in general because things like DCAing exist. If you ignore last year, the past 10 years with easy monetary policy stonk only go up. This is indeed a form of recency bias, hence why bull only funds are shit like ARKK. They donā€™t know how to play downside because they became famous for the auto win buy button that lasted 10 years.

This week has shown something unprecedented. If a up day or down day are determined on a blackjack game. The bulls always get 20 on technicals ALONE. Every narrative, every earnings, everything is seen in bullish lenses. Fundamentals, mechanics, the option chain - all irrelevant.

In order for the stock market to go red in a day, EVERY SINGLE other bearish indicator must be active at once, oversold, bollinger bands, expensive calls, DXY/Vix pumpā€¦. If not the bulls buy it up and shrug it off.

This is how the crash will happen: EVERY SINGLE MACRO ITEM MUST COALESCE. Negative earnings, red chart, SPR drained and gas prices up, inflation up, layoffs, interest rate delay, credit card crisis, savings at new lower levels, liquidity crisis, housing crash, student loan repaymentsā€¦. All of it. SPR being empty doesnā€™t even take place until early 2024.

Save most of your bear ammo for then. Play the bullish sentiment as it comes and goes.

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