Wow this may be one of the best things I've read on WSB in a long time.

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I'd value your input on 2 covid-19 era stimulus policies that will end in 2023: SNAP Emergency Allotment and student loan repayments resuming.

Under SNAP Emergency Allotment, ~32 states expanded SNAP to allow any household that qualified for SNAP to receive the maximum benefit, regardless of their income level. This is estimated to be about $60-70 billion worth of benefits that were given out since the program began, but I cannot find hard numbers on it. SNAP Emergency Allotment officially discontinues at the end of February. Research done by JPM found that households will reduce their food spend last before giving up anything else (obviously). With households no longer receiving this free money, where will they pull it from?

Student loan forgiveness plus SNAP Emergency Allotment, combined with rising inflation and the Trump tax cut ending just now kicking in and seeing reduced refunds, makes me think that we will absolutely head into a recession by end of Q2.

Have you ever made money in the markets?

I’m sorry for saying this as it’s apparently your birthday - happy birthday!

I also think Pascal is awesome.

But all of this looks 100% wrong…And I’m sorry for your continued losses.

Happy birthday!

My dude, my attention span is shorter than 0dtes to read all that* but thumbs up for the DD.

(*saved to go over it later, at a glance it looks worth the effort)

Desmond, from LOST? Stop entering the numbers, Des. It will be okay. Nothing will happen.

I’m up 11% ytd as a bull but not feeling good risking my gains for another 3-5% when my cash is earning 4.15%. And would anyone else? Bearish

Good read.

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Alternate theory is that the market is propped up to avoid Volmageddon. The longer it continues this trend, the steeper the drop.

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Tech should be down YTD and not up based on the move in bonds.

i skimmed this post because its too long but i did see this piece while scrolling

>I even forgot to watch "You" Season 4.

since your post is long, i trust whatever the hell youre shilling, and im going to assume its NFLX puts since you forgot to watch one of their top shows

thanks bro, ill get some tomorrow

The failed inverse correlation between equity and bonds is a liquidation event in preparation for a downturn.

The rest of this felt like a newsletter i can’t find the unsubscribe links for.

While i think it’s great you’re trying to go for depth and add quality to WSB, you’re all over the place looking like a Charlie day meme and not getting to the point.

Yea who would’ve guessed that

Everyone calling puts on WISH so naturally they will pop by 50%. Mark my words.

The market will decide and test. It will approve. It has already spoken but you will not discern the feedback.

->The equity risk premium says the same story as the yield curve: rates are coming down soon. The ERP will normalize through bond yields falling, not stock prices falling.

->Japan might widen the band by 50 basis points. Nothingburger.

->China's printer is just getting warmed up. Buy buy buy!

I offered no one financial advice. You offered up emphatic truths to strangers in a subject you have a cursory knowledge of.

I’ll let others decide what’s better.

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Ueda said they can't abandon YCC right away, something they'll visit next year.

One reason (some) stocks don’t necessarily have to go south; if a stock, say a consumer staple, is deemed to have inflation linked cash flows, then you could argue that you should use real rates instead of nominal rates in your discounting of future cash flows, which can help explain some valuations since real rates are much lower than nominal. When we hear stories of retail investors piling into stocks despite the higher bond yields, I think it can at least partially be interpreted as retail investors having lost faith in the durability of cash - ie their personal expectation of the future real rate is much lower than market pricing. I honestly can’t blame them given how history has played out so far

No way you must be kidding

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Break 3850 we are fked.

I agree. If we can test the support and bounce we are good to go to 4200/4300. If we bust through 3800, I'm betting on 3232.

You mean you don’t know for sure? What about all those lines??

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Sir, this is a r/wallstreetbets

An ultra poor calling a poors, poor. I've seen it all now

Thanks, mate

Idk… Why buy a book for $6.90 when you can buy a $5 1dte contract that expires to worthless and a cup of coffee