Having people who can specify exactly what they want takes 10% of the labor that coding to spec requires.

The software engineer designing the program will remain employed for a lot longer than the people doing the coding.

Or Google, or Meta, or Adobe.

Lots of established companies that could scoop them up.

Not every job.

Some jobs are much harder to automate. Some jobs people won’t want robots doing even if they can.

For example; restaurants. Yes, fast food is already automating. Fine dining? The customers are going to expect human waiters and chefs.

Another example is government. A lot of people simply won’t accept being governed by machines. People will expect humans to continue to make the decisions.

Finance has far more automation than you think it does. It was an early adopter. They just don’t advertise the machine learning algorithms watch and analyzing the markets 24/7, and even making a lot of trades autonomously.

Machine learning in medicine as a diagnostic tool has been widely publicized.

I read an article yesterday about machine learning finding more efficient algorithms for matrix multiplication.

In ten years people will be saying the same thing about them that people say about Amazon today.

Assuming they don’t go the way of Boston Dynamics and get purchased by a large corporation.

Eyesight without eyes has been around for years.

It does require brain implants, it is low resolution, and it’s not legal to do the surgery in every country.

Actual cybernetic eyes will likely take longer than 20 years, just for the medical approvals.

Subscription fees and individual transactions.

And you should be blaming the models developed by mobile gaming platforms and Microsoft, not Musk.

What economic system do you have that is better than capitalism?

Not quite 20 years.

https://bigthink.com/the-future/augmented-reality-ar-milestone-wearable-contacts/

Or we could be a little more subtle. Tweak the pleasure centers just a little when an advertisement comes up.

Monitoring thoughts is already a requirement for FDVR, so we just keep some of that information.

If corporations have FDVR, so do criminals. Want a real sex slaves instead? Read/write access means your can reprogram a few girls.

Addiction: with direct access it only takes a few minutes and the addict does not need to consent.

Maybe the corporations do want people that work like machines. Just a little reprogramming can result in much more efficient workers.

Full Dive VR is read/write access to your brain.

Are you going to give a corporation read/write access to your brain?

You realize that the issue is no available beds to offload the ambulances.

An ambulance picked her up as soon as it was able to offload the previous patient.

The ambulance sat parked at the hospital with her inside due to no beds available.

>you can't scale a language model enough for it to be able to make sense of even relatively small codebase to meaningfully contribute to

They were saying similar things about text-to-art just last year.

Average office jobs started disappearing in the 1980s with the advent of the PC.

There were huge waves of corporate right-sizing. Things like typing pools don’t really exist anymore.

I expect the next wave to start next year. AI-generated art has reached a point where it can dramatically reduce (but not eliminate) corporate labor requirements for art production.

Another year or two and text generation AIs will start replacing programmers in bulk. It won’t eliminate programmers completely, but the few remaining will have very different jobs.

“This cannot be done.”

Example provided showing it has already been done.

“That doesn’t count, it still cannot be done.”

https://www.insider.com/artificial-intelligence-bot-wrote-scientific-paper-on-itself-2-hours-2022-7

Some airlines will pay for most of the training.

Free form text tends to get lost, but what would happen if you optimized it to flesh out an outline?

The same with text-to-videos; you might get more coherent results earlier if you had the AI start with a script and storyboards.

You need to walk before you can run.

Define better.

Medicine is much better than it was a couple of decades ago.

Cars are safer, cleaner, and more fuel efficient.

Home computers are entire orders of magnitude more powerful than when I was young.

The IoT was just starting as a concept 10 years ago.

Technology today is advancing fast enough that rapid change is becoming normalized enough to be unrecognizable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/everything-need-know-sex-robot-brothel-opening-houston/amp/

In distribution centers, their is approximately a 90% labor reduction between a state-of-the-art facility and a traditional facility.

That is here and now. It is happening today, not the near future.

Mid Journey and related text-to-art AIs are already looking at displacing huge numbers of commercial artists in the next year or two.

Good luck with that.

The companies that are automating already have their lobbies in place.

I’ve physically visited distribution centers that will only have 10% of the work force that would have been required 20 years ago.

Automation is happening today. It’s just not reached the point where the general population has awareness.

Worrying about what could go wrong, and doing something about it, is called being prepared.