I think AI has to have some kind of understanding in order to perform so well. AI in the past performed poorly because it obviously had poor understanding. I think "AI has no understanding" is kind of an unfalsifiable argument - it's kind of suspect that something which has no form of understanding whatsoever could produce such accurate and well-formed results, but it's also something that's impossible to argue for or against.

Yuli a best

I dunno about perfected, but December 2023 video generation will be really damn good. While AI video is indeed in its infancy, year 1 for AI video is miles beyond what image generation was like in the early 2012-2015 days.

Your climate change opinions are fine, but why do so many people here have the absolute shittiest, most inhumanly garbage takes possible on technology? It's like half the people here last paid attention to tech in 2007 or something.

Yes, but one important thing is, well, just how big is a "geo-fenced" area? One singular town? Half the country? I have never been able to find information on just how many areas are geo-fenced.

I don't think your interpretation is correct, no. I don't think he's saying that. I think this is a topic you feel strongly about and it's causing you to jump at shadows a bit.

Cute

While I agree, I think improved AI will likewise be better at advancing medical tech.

You are so, so incredibly stupid. And the youngest Boomers will only be 75 in 2039, you fucking moron, learn what the fuck you're talking about. Baby Boomers aren't going extinct in the god damned 2030s. You did not raise a single valid point in this ridiculous braindead shitshow of a post.

That is the opposite of ignorance. The ignorant ones are the average everyday people who speak of the 2030s, 2040s, 2060s, etc as though everything will be the same and nothing will change.

(Edit: Not commenting on climate change stuff here, just speaking in general)

Fully self-driving? As in level 5?

Level 4 self-driving is pretty damn close to full self-driving. I think the main difference is that in Level 5 you cannot take over, whereas a smart Level 4 gives you the option but you rarely have to utilize it.

Explain the VR prediction?

Granted, your post is vague enough to be open to interpretation, but I disagree. What you describe ("there will be a bit of progress, but eh, nothing worth excitement") is more like a 2010s year. Nowadays each year counts for quite a lot. AI video and AI art are in a very different place now compared to January. We're at a point where the slow years are over and each new year brings major change. That doesn't mean reaching the finish line in any given field, but 20s years bring a lot more progress in the fields we care about than 10s years. We're past the point where there's ho-hum years where not much happens, and have reached the point where every year is like the four guys on a couch meme.

That was 50 years ago, move on

When do you think that will be? And which jobs do you mean?

Omg lol XD XD Yeah, I wasn't sure if he meant the Singularity or AGI.

>and probably many more beyond our imagination

Indeed. The all-knowing self-proclaimed realists and cynics and skeptics might not want to admit this since they're arrogant fucks who think they can never be wrong on anything, but not a single person in the world has ever perfectly imagined what the future will be like. It will be both good and bad in ways that the optimists have never imagined, and likewise both good and bad in ways that the pessimists have never imagined.

I'll back off then, just say you have good stuff to look forward to.

That's actually not unrealistic at all. I know some incredibly well-informed people who say that, up to and including the higher-ups of OpenAI. You don't have to change your mind but the "20s AGI" opinion is absolutely not as ridiculous as you think, or even ridiculous at all.

The beginning of what?

ASI next month is of course silly, but your prediction is equally silly, just in the opposite direction.

There's no "could" to it. Your opinion is completely and utterly mind-boggling. Words can't describe just how completely bad and wrong your take is. It's like the last time you paid attention to the field was 2009 or something.

Wow, you're... so unbelievably clueless. Late 2040s? And you think that's optimistic? It's like you're stuck in 2010. What in the actual hell did I just read.

Terribly rude. smh.