I don't know about that. Therapy can be stupidly expensive. There's quite a few people who would take 9/10 service that's free (and which you can use from home) over 10/10 that you can barely afford.

You're dumb as fuck.

Congrats. One of the most monstrously stupid posts of 2022.

It's true that the difference between 2002 and 2012 was very night-and-day whereas 2012 vs. 2022 is more subtle, but you're somewhat overstating the point; I was 24/25 in 2012 and can think of multiple ways in which my life has changed since then due to technology. At any rate, the 10s were largely a preparation decade for various technologies that would proliferate during the 20s, so 2022 vs 2032 will be more akin to 2002 vs 2012, except with a much greater impact on quality-of-life since medical tech will be one of the things that benefits this time.

Uh... I can't speak for the 1950s since I wasn't alive then, but I remember the 90s and 2000s and I feel as though my life and the world was very different. It's pretty subjective. You can hyperfixate on the way things have remained stable if that's what you want to do (we still drive cars, we still shop at stores, whatever) for whatever reason you might have, but your perspective is not the only valid one. Like my day-to-day life was dramatically different in the 90s because I didn't have the internet for most of the decade, but I'm supposed to discount my own experiences and say that that's totally wrong because... reasons? Because some guy on reddit tells me to? None of my hobbies and interests and defining elements of daily life even existed in 1954.

Why do you think that will happen?

I dunno, but it sounds wonderful and I trust Yuli's opinion, since I've known him for about 10 years and he's pretty grounded and far from a blind optimist.

L-link?

December 2023:

• Turing Test passed. Regardless of whether or not it's a good barometer for AGI, this is still important. Not only is it a very old and famous milestone, but reliable chatbots are good for both optics and social services. Websites like Characters.ai will benefit tremendously. In December 2022 Characters.ai is very impressive and sometimes startlingly human and can even provide some genuine social and emotional nourishment, but is very obviously a bot thanks to its occasional contradictory answers and limited memory reserves. Kind of like talking to someone in an earlier stage of Alzheimer's. (AI chatbots 10 years ago, meanwhile, were like talking to someone with severe Alzheimer's that had no comprehension at all and could never give a relevant response) December 2023 Characters.ai might be almost indistinguishable from a human. Much longer memory, rare contradictory answers, rarely trips up.

• Video generation is very coherent. Whereas December 2022 video generation had an obvious distorted dreamlike quality, December 2023 video generation is like AI art is now - almost perfect minus some niggling details (mainly hands). A video that's 10 minutes or longer has been published of very high quality that's entirely coherent in both visuals and storytelling, or very close to it. Imperfections can be spotted but generally mild nitpicky things.

• 30+ page stories are written that are essentially flawless in terms of coherency. Maybe even more than 100 pages.

• Tesla FSD rarely makes outstandingly stupid errors and is at the level of an average human. Details have been announced regarding the first consumer driverless vehicles set to arrive around 2025 (I read an article this year claiming that multiple major companies are aiming to begin selling consumer driverless cars in '25).

• Kernel continues conducting clinical trials using their headsets. Some important things are learned regarding mental illnesses which give us a clearer insight into the cause of things like depression, anxiety, and trauma disorders.

• Promising medical stories become more common here, in part thanks to dramatically more capable AI - stories which are clearly not vaporware, but medical miracles which have high chances of working out. Hype begins generating about how we might be at the beginning of a medical revolution, similar to the hype that centered around AI this year. In terms of actual progress, 2023 is akin to a 2012 to 2019 year (for AI) - interesting and exciting but with long periods of radio silence. The hype becomes much thicker in 2024 as it truly begins to feel as though we're entering an age of miracles, and by somewhere in 2025 AI-assisted medical research occupies a similar spot to electric vehicles in the present. In 2022, many people are saying that electric vehicles will become mainstream by 2030, taking this trajectory for granted. Likewise, many organizations will be saying by the end of 2025 that thanks to AI, our physical and mental health will become more secure within the next 5-10 years than we could have ever imagined.

I am not watching your video.

What's that mean though

Why are we still fixated on Montezuma's Revenge just like we were in fucking 2013? An Atari game is such a low bar... can't we move on to at least Dragon Quest 1 or something?

The site is in drastic need of revamping. The admin no longer believes any of the stuff you just cited - the majority of the website was written in the 2007-2009 area, where things were admittedly dramatically more primitive and so the future seemed further away.

Yes. ArgentStonecutter isn't even attempting to be a reasonable person anymore, he's just being an obnoxious shit-flinging troll.

He's a staunch technoskeptic and very rarely posts anything worth reading.

No... yeah

While I think that self-proclaimed realists/skeptics/cynics are fucking morons and nowhere near as intelligent as they believe themselves to be, and even though I'd be happy if they fucked off forever and stopped swarming every futurism-centered community like locusts, and while I desperately wish that they would realize that it's possible for others to dislike them because they're genuinely stupid people who say genuinely stupid thing and not because they're stone cold badasses who tell it like it is and upset people who overdose on hopium and simply can't handle the truth (because self-proclaimed cynics and realists are incapable of arguing without resorting to strawmanning)... no, we shouldn't engage in censorship. We should just band together more often and tell the idiots here how and why they're idiots.

Moron. Why do people on the skeptic/cynic side always act as though that criticism can never be invalid, that the points their 'side' raises can never be wrong or poorly-considered, and that anyone who dislikes them must do so because they're fragile little idiots who can't handle the truth (which, of course, everything the techno-skeptic side says is, because they can never be wrong on anything)?

Obnoxious post. I don't think we should censor people, but saying that criticism is inherently valid is just dumb. A lot of the cynical, skeptical posts here have erroneous criticisms divorced from reality that are in absolutely no way whatsoever even the tiniest bit worth respecting.

I agree that we shouldn't censor people, but saying that Luddites and skeptics aren't commonplace here simply isn't supported by reality. There's a 50/50 divide at the very absolute best.

lul I know that a consumer self-driving car wouldn't be what I just described, you're shitting me if you say that it would be

I know, but that's extremely, extremely dumb and slowing down medical research or application for that reason is the furthest thing in the world from ethical.

Yes, it's very morally ambiguous as to whether treating cancer and other diseases is a good thing

Sincerely, someone who hasn't paid attention to anything since maybe 2014

I hope this is just for the current, early day robo-taxi tests. If I bought an L4 self-driving car one day and it was only self-driving in one town and was a normal car everywhere else, that would be kind of... completely and totally fucking useless?