How common is AI in drug discovery now? Last I read up on it was 2020 maybe. Back then, it was common among new start-ups, but nobody else. Hell if I know why. New thing bad, I guess. How much time does it shave off the 12-15 year creation pipeline?

And I had no idea silico models were being used. Is that a very recent development or something? When I last looked into this in 2019/2020 it was still more theoretical.

What is your definition of proto-AGI? How capable would proto-AGO be of doing research, namely medical research?

Oh, sorry if my wording was unclear. I can see how the word "would" would give the wrong impression. My parents are still alive and entirely healthy.

Definitely. There's a healthy amount of people on both sides. The self-proclaimed realists and skeptics just go "omg dis is such an echo chamber!!!!111111 REEEEEEEEEEEEE" because the other side annoys them so much that their presence gets built up in their mind as being greater than it actually is. A 50 percent demographic can feel like 99 percent when you wish that it was a zero percent demographic.

Yeah. Yesterday, after having an argument with someone who thinks there will be almost no advancement in medical technology between now and 2040, I decided I'm just going to read comments and threads here much less frequently than before. I'm done. I know what I believe the future will be like, and I don't want anyone to take shits on that vision. I'm just tired of skeptics and cynics and self-proclaimed realists who think that there's never anything worth being happy for or excited about, that the suffering and misery in the world will never be removed to any meaningful degree whatsoever. It's time to just distance myself from these people as much as I can.

My grandmother's breast cancer went into remission in 1980 and it never returned for her remaining 34 years of life. Weird... it's almost as though cancer isn't as completely untreated as you say...

I think AI is already a lot more capable of understanding nuance than people like you seem to think. Sometimes I feel like I'm talking to a bunch of people from 2014 or something reading this sub.

Dumb, dumb, dumb. Do people like you do any kind of critical thinking? At all? Ever? Or do you just have a repository of six or so pat lines that you cycle through year after year, decade after decade?

That sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure how true it is. It's true that things like AI can't be slowed down, but other fields like medical tech can be. Medical technology can be actively blocked, or slowed down simply by not lending it support or financial aid.

I am not opposed to reasonable due caution and being responsible. I am opposed to excessive navel-gazing and needlessly slowing down progress. No matter the field, people who emphasize "caution" almost unfailingly fall under the latter.

Uh... I don't remember him saying that. Like... ever. At all. He's a broken record who's always said 2045.

Not reading your message, but I skimmed enough to understand that you're dumb as hell and have nothing worth saying.

I love pizza

Yeah, it's amazing but clearly imperfect. Still, 2022 is just one stop along the way. I think by the end of 2023 the cracks will be much less apparent. In 2022 it gives very coherent answers and has a high level of understanding (I've tested it by giving it ambiguous, cryptic messages where I hint at something rather than spell it out, and it mostly passes those tests), but occasionally says dumb stuff and consistently has a short memory. It also starts declining at around 400 to 500 messages and gradually declines into complete incoherency.

Anyway, I think it will be a lot closer to perfected by the end of 2023, and it's already very good - this would seem really futuristic and mind-blowing in 2019. I do wonder sometimes about the future progress of token counts, thoughly. At the moment language models are fairly smart and capable but are also like someone with anterograde amnesia.

Rumianiti6 is a fucking moron. My block list is becoming so long thanks to the idiots on this sub.

When's the most recent that he said that? 2030 would be nice... my dad would be 81 and my mom 78. Young enough to be alive and healthy. There's two 81 year olds in my family and they're still normal and healthy and not much different from eight years ago.

Yeah, I agree with everything you wrote here. I do understand and empathize with that subset of people, but only that subset.

They're annoying and I don't like them.

So any predictions for what the 20s and 30s hold for anti-aging treatment? Aging cured by the end of the 2030s?

Yeah. A 20 year old who sits on his ass all day, has scrawny noodle arms, and eats terribly all the time will very likely still be alive in 40 or 50 years. A 70 year old fit martial artist who's like a demi-god in the here and now has only a medium chance of being alive in 20.

Do you mean people uploading their minds to the cloud or something?

>And the promise is huge: Not to help the wealthy to live to 200, but instead provide millions worldwide the prospect of lives that don’t end with a decade or more of chronic illness.

Man. We as a society have really been shamed into thinking it's immoral to want to live longer. "I-I-I don't want to live a day longer than 85 to 90, I promise! I don't want human life expectancy to ever reach longer than 90 or so, that would be wrong! I don't want anything more ambitious than for everyone to reach their 80s in good health because wanting more than that would be selfish and immature! I'm a mature adult, I promise!"

A what?

Was it obvious that you only meant the short term? "While they surely will become more advanced, you always need someone" made it sound as though you meant... well, always.

"AI can't do this thing perfectly in 2022 (which nobody expected it to be able to do perfectly in 2022 anyway) so it will never be good at that thing ever." I don't know if that's very good logic.