One of the few non-terrible posts in the thread. Otherwise it's been largely garbage.

Maybe you could actually give him time to respond before coming up with some snarky little jab? Heinrich is active in multiple communities and is a trustworthy and reliable person.

I have been reading this sub less since I posted that, yeah.

The quality of discourse on this sub as well as the intelligence level is incredibly low, so he/she is probably unaware, yeah.

I won't expect absolute perfection, but I do expect something worth being happy about and excited over. There's a difference between predicting the future, and understanding something which presumably already exists given that it's slated for release within the next three weeks. I also don't see what he would have to gain from hyping up something if it turns out to be extremely underwhelming - that would just be putting his head on the chopping block, damaging his reputation, and subjecting himself to negative pushback.

Yeah. You can debate the overall intelligence of AI, but AI art and image generation is now very good. There is simply no getting around this.

I... wouldn't. I don't think any of us would. Would I mock someone whose livelihood was disrupted by technology? Of course not. But if it was something like someone telling me that medical tech wouldn't progress much in a 10 time year timespan, and that person ended up being wrong, would I gloat in that scenario? Damn right I would.

Best redditor, time to Follow you and read your posts whenever you say something in here.

Fairly bad CPTSD is probably the most relevant illness here. I'm on meds and they generally work well; I don't think I need to stay off the internet altogether, but I should probably avoid the sub until the current round of anti-hype backlash dies down, since the "skeptics" and "cynics" are largely swamping every thread as a response to the fact that the sub was so excitable for a while there. I think I overreact to many of the posters on this sub about a dozen times over, but I don't think my basic observations are wrong - many of the skeptics/cynics here are bad at logical analyses, are regularly prone to logical fallacies (I could probably think of several right off-hand), and generally just come across as bad faith posters. I should be more capable of ignoring them than I am, but even if they didn't rattle me sometimes the content of their posts still wouldn't be very intelligent or worthwhile.

Thanks for the good response. This thread is honestly triggering for me. I think that 2023 will be a great year for technology and I just want to relax and enjoy myself and have a good, warm year while seeing the world change, but threads like these put me in a state of seething anger and hatred that it's hard to break out from. I have nothing but the purest contempt and animosity for the people here who never, ever post anything but negative shit (actually intellectually honest people whose posts are a fair-minded mixture of positive and negative are a different story and there's many such people I respect).

There's so, so many "realists" and "skeptics" and "cynics" here who are genuinely toxic, stupid people. I don't hate them because they're arbiters of truth who tell it like it is, as these dumb motherfuckers seem to believe. I hate them because their opinions and beliefs are idiotic. I hate them because they rarely seem to employ critical thinking and just make self-evident statements without the first shred of doubt. I hate them because, ever since I first got into futurism in 2011, they have constantly condescended to the other side every single step of the way. I hate them because they constantly engage in strawman arguments. I hate them because they never, ever admit any kind of fault, ever - there's nothing wrong with their demeanor, there's nothing wrong with their approach, there's nothing wrong with a single idea or thought they ever have, and anyone who takes issue with them is just a fucking starry-eyed pussy dumbass that can't stand the cold hard truth. Their stubborn inability to consider other perspectives or viewpoints or admit any kind of fault on anything actually reminds me somewhat of narcissists, but I know they aren't narcs. They're just genuinely stupid people whose brains aren't flexible enough to have any kind of self-insight or self-awareness or create thoughts that are even vaguely, remotely worthwhile.

Going to take a double dose of my Inositol tonight, I think (anti-anxiety powder you mix into water). The dumb fuckers on this sub are making me absolutely livid on a regular basis. There's no shortage of non-optimists whose opinions I respect because they're fair-minded and well-considered, but the 80 IQ dipshits in this thread and elsewhere do not deserve any kind of respect.

Honestly, are there any alternative subs to this one? I get tired of the Self-Proclaimed Realist Posse swarming over every single god damned thread on this sub like a bunch of fucking god damned locusts, then blaming everyone who dislikes them instead of examining their own beliefs and behavior. This place is turning into Futurology 2.0.

what

Looking at threads like this, I don't want to hear any fucking dumbass here call this sub some kind of overly optimistic hugbox echo chamber ever again. Even assuming for the sake of argument that cynics and skeptics and whatnot are in the right, this thread makes it perfectly clear that such people are not some kind of bullied and ostracized minority, but if anything are becoming the majority.

Stupid post. Stupid person.

Yeah, 2040s is just... absurd. Absolutely absurd. There is no way to justify that opinion unless the last time you paid attention was 2017 or something.

Absolutely. That's self-proclaimed realists and skeptics for you, though - they're nothing if not utterly hard-headed and completely confident in everything they ever say. In their minds, anything skeptical is automatically intelligent. I could say that 40 TB hard drives won't exist until 2800 and they would go "OMG!!!!! So true!!!!! 10/10 post take my upvote"

My 90s childhood and 2000s teens posed a far greater threat to my mental health than the Singularity ever could.

I don't even know wtf the Singularity is on anything more than a vague level honestly, but we'll live to see dramatically improved quality-of-life standards and that's all that matters. That's not some insane starry-eyed hopium, every decade of history going back to the 1800s has introduced new forms of technology and advancements worth being happy about. I'm much more comfy as a 35 year old in 2022 than I would have been as a 35 year old in my own birth year of 1987 (assuming everything about my personality and self remained intact). My hopium remains, sorry. Have a good 2023.

Kind of a dumb thread that's basically expecting the worst from every situation, however unlikely.

He's the GTM of OpenAI. As far as I can tell, a GTM is a public relations person that devises plans to convince customers to buy or use their product.

I'm optimistic too. For what percentage of people was that granulocyte safety trial effective for? If it could be re-administered repeatedly, wouldn't that just make the cancer a chronic condition rather than something resulting in death?

It's probably more than 3 years for the people actually afflicted with cancer. The "3 year" figure is likely influenced by the fact that the majority of people never develop cancer, but rather an incredibly large minority of around 39 percent (as opposed to something like heart disease, where around 86 percent of people aged 80+ are believed to have some degree of heart disease). My paternal grandmother was diagnosed with breast cancer in 1980 at the age of 56 or 57. Treatment was successful and she never developed any other form of cancer for the remainder of her life; she died in 2014 just shy of her 91st birthday, and was in good health the entire time aside from her final year where she struggled with cardiovascular dementia (she was lucid at 89 but had some problems at 90). If she'd died from her cancer in 1980, she would have lost not 3 years, but 34.

Nice. Thank you :)

How about glioblastoma, which runs in my family?

I wrote a 2.5 million word story from 2006 to 2018 that spans about a century, 2002 to 2103. I'd enjoy converting the whole thing to anime or movie format.

90 percent? Do you mean that AI and organ-on-a-chip shorten the whole process has shortened the process from 12-15 years down to 1-1.5?