Looking at previous collars from this year... the week after is usually a consolidation week. Then the week after that starts the move and that move usually lasts about 7 weeks.

Gotta see what consensus comes in at. We could definitely get set up for a dump. But im not expecting that just yet. But we shall see.

I do wonder if we see q1 turn out better than expected and mid to late spring cpi starts rebounding with worse q2 eanrings to start a leg down

I wanna be bearish but markets were clear that 378 was the line

Well if someone tries to say im a scammer i guess we know who to blame

Im pretty indifferent about it. Before this week i had a pretty clear cut scenario of spy touching 320 by march. Honestly im not as convinced now.

Unless we get an actual catalyst to push us down like that and that could be some terrible earnings, a huge cpi rebound, jpow being bearish again or your standard black swan. But honestly right now im scratching my head on what is going to cause markets to dip that hard an low.

Most of the cycle sell offs this year have been event oriented with most being cpi/ fomc. But unless something changes i dont see that same level of fear to drop us. Of course sentiment can and will change. I dont think we see ath either but im thinking we could lock into a bigger range like 380 to 410 and spend a ling time consolidating there.

We arent quite bullish enough to make the markets rip and for big money to come back in but also arent quite bearish enough for people to sell aggressively again

Aight bot 👌 whatever the bot says. You and your valorant buds can go snicker together for wasting my time

You know whats really intriguing... all three of you commenting just so happen to be part of the same Valorant community and all of you have very low post and comment karma... little sus and spammy if you ask me...

I dont see where im manipulating anyone? But you are entitled to your opinion.

I do post my trading log the way i do because it is whats best for me to track my trades and be able to each day and week analyze my trades.

I didnt go off tangent. I answered your question you just didnt like the answer you got. No i have no desire to post screenshots of my actual account balance every single day. I dont need to do that and honestly the final amounts in my accounts really is private. I am fairly transparent in my opinion compared to most traders who only post their wins and you never see them shows their loses or periods of drawdown...

If its not good enough for you thats okay. But to say im manipulating people is just a blatant lie. I provide analysis of the markets and i also provide when i enter and exit trades. Its that simple. Someone either wishes to follow my analysis and trades or they dont. They either follow my analysis/ trades and make money or they lose money. Its actually pretty black and white. People either find value in what i do or they dont. Nobodies forcing anyone to do anything 🤷‍♂️

Im sure other big banks/ brokers are doing similiar trades.... Honesty its a good question that maybe ill research this weekend in why jpm is the lucky one that gets to decide. But honestly before 2022 no one careed about the collar much either as it didnt really matter in my opinion.

Its set on SPX not spy.

Ah okay. That makes more sense. I wasnt tracking there at all.

Realistic with previous cpi being 7.1% as long as estimate is 6.9 or lower we should "beat."

But again markets eventually are going to start focusing on core again which has been the biggest struggler and had the most rebounds. I also wonder when markets will care about the fact that MoM cpi is still rising

No. As i have mentioned above and numerous times i post my daily log for me and honestly as a courtesy to those who dont see the trades live. I track my trades the way i do because it benefits me.

Ive posted numerous account pics and sceenshots and other things through the year and regularly. And again a p/l statement when you frequently take money out of an account is pointless.

I could open a robinhood account and deposit 100k and show you a pretty dope 1y p/l. P/l statements unless its an account you never transfer funds from and never do anything but trade and grow is never going to give you the full picture anyways.

I actually didnt divert it you just didnt get the answer you wanted.

I post plenty of sceenshots from my trades live of my broker and of my bot at times depending. I cant advertise it here and dont wanna risk a ban mentioning it but there is a place where that all happens live and one could audit me live and gets to see sceenshots from my wins and losses.

Technically the collar is direction neutral but i feel unless we see a repeat of june it presents a more bullish tone. But it still is neutral. Its not placed by my understanding to be directional. But calls at 4030 or whatever it is almost guaranteeds are some point we see 4100-4200

Why would an extra low (6.4) cpi reading cause a dump tho? A good cpi reading would be taken bullushly no?

Granted we need to factor in core and mom. But why would an even extra low compared to normal reading cause a crash?

Thats above my pay grade 🤣 but interested to hear what someone has to say

A dump or a pump?

Currently forecast (not consensus) has MoM at 0.1% which id have to confirm but last time i looked put yoy estimated at 6.5%ish. That would be another huge decrease in cpi

They are not out yet. Sometime next week hopefully

I dont believe ive made any excuses actually... ive give reasons why i do things the way i do.

The way i track my daily, weekly and monthly trade logs allows me to look at it in a macro way like i presented and it also allows me to look at it in a micro way. Tracking it and presenting it how i do allows me in times of drawdown to review my trades and see what i could have done better or worse. And in the end i dont even have to show or present my daily logs or daily trades.... i also fail to see most traders do it as consistently and openly as i do everyday...

I track my trades and present them for me... not everyone else...

The one change i am considering making is adding a time slot. I wanna further analyze if there is a specific time of day im better or worse at trading

Jpm gently pushes said market lol

Everything this week should have resulted in a pretty significant breakdown but that did not happen.... we could be in a consolidation period still but i am bullish

If they need volunteers tells me they have a lot of inventory

Could be a buy the rumor sell the news. ELON seemed like there was a ton of vehicles coming in so it might be good data. Honestly last release was good data too but they got in my opinion wrongfully hit

My thoughts are we hit 390 Tuesday maybe Wednesday. Possibly 395-400 eow

That actually is a very favorable but very bullish trade. I think we touch 4000-4100 in January before anything else happens.