Naming it aside, I think that Ray is basically correct, just wrong in his timing of things. I do think and hope that we will be turning everything into some kind of computronium to create simulations where anything and everything is possible. Who knows what we will do there with greatly amplified intellect? And if not, the total mass of computers in existence will still go up, not down. Their efficiency will improve as well of course.

I wasn't addressing you.

To be honest, I would much prefer Singularity caused by greatly amplified humans than ASI. That's the human perspective. I would prefer to be much smarter myself than to have an AI helper. But an AI helper is much preferable to what the situation is now.

We certainly could achieve Singularity with human augmentation, amplifying human intelligence directly.

Depends entirely on your definition of Singularity. I think we probably could.

This poll won't change anything. And being pessimistic won't help.

Reversing aging will certainly lead to a much, much stronger economy and will benefit everyone, rich and poor. Thing is, what classifies as rich or poor will change in the future.

I checked "immortality", because that's what I hope for. Otherwise, why even bother creating ASI?

In 2022 there are more job openings than people willing to take them. There is a shortage of workers, despite what Singularitarians were writing 10 years ago. There's no technological unemployment. That's just science-fiction. And cheaper stuff doesn't come from UBI. The whole idea of the soon incoming mass technological unemployment is mistaken. Change doesn't happen so fast. Just look at Tesla Optimus. It's just a one robot and it's so far from doing everything a human can, but better.

Why? Prices of stuff have been dropping for centuries now and there has not been any UBI. Things like the cost of lighting, transportation, sending a message, iron, steel, bricks, glass, containers, bed sheets or clothes have been getting cheaper for a long time. I don't think that without UBI we won't see lower prices. That's a baseless assumption. It does not mean I wouldn't want an UBI.

Good. Less people will be needed for harvesting fruits. More people to do other things or just enjoy life. Fruit prices will go down.

Yeah, assuming humans use the AIs responsibly and with goodness in mind, which is doubtful.

I am seriously worried that people are and will be using AI irresponsibly. <( _ _ )>
It is up to us humans to use AI responsibly, reasonably, conscientiously, levelheadedly and rationally. (ㆆ_ㆆ)

If we f**k this up, it will be our fault, not AI's. AI is a tool. We are executive and in control. AI is not an invasion of aliens. WE are creating AI, not God, not aliens and it doesn't create itself.

I expect gradual slowing down of the doubling in AI compute. The doubling times will be getting longer. So don't expect some miracles to happen by the end of this decade.

I believe in the 80-20 rule.

Getting to 80% of image synthesis takes 5 years, but the last 20% will take another 20 years.

Similarly with text, voice and video. So for the near future, I will prefer human output to machine output, but that is going to change eventually.

If 90% of content will be AI-generated by 2026, then that content will be crappy. Not to say that human content is good.

I think that 5-10 years is way too optimistic. For one, computer hardware in 10 years might be only 10x faster than now. For two, progress in such AI doesn't have to follow the last 5 years trendline.

I think we will need methods to slow down aging and to automate various tasks really soon, in the 2030s as the latest.

Funnily enough, there are more job openings today than 10 years ago. 😅

Funnily enough, I'm much more skeptical over automation and AI than I was for example 10 years ago, when I expected huge changes over the next 10 years. I very much expect the world to go in a positive direction, not extremely quickly, but with a moderate speed. I discuss it with people, but realistically. Not in some crazy optimistic, unrealistic manner like 10 years ago. I do think that all cashiers and truck drivers will be gone in 15 to 20 years. Artists and bus drivers in 20-25 years.

Actually good, high-quality, 2 hours long movies? That will take 25-30 years in my opinion. For now I just want better image synthesis.

If you mean images of them, it already works pretty well. If you mean 3D objects, more training is needed. If you mean gynoids, then also more work is necessary.

"Real" humans are disgusting.

Danbooru is like a library of anime (often sexual) art. It is all tagged. Are you angry at your local library for lending books that are copyrighted? I don't think so. If not for Danbooru, I wouldn't know about many good artists. I came upon my all-time favorite artist on Konachan in 2011 (I used to browse E-Shuushuu and other websites, not Danbooru). Back then, Pixiv was 100% in Japanese and translators were nearly useless. With anime and manga things are different, because they are media you have to pay for. Paid rewards are banned on Danbooru since 2020. Art on Twitter etc is free and Danbooru always provides links for sources.

If in the 2030s and 2040s somehow there won't be more automation, then things will start to get worse instead of getting better in the so called developed nations. Because of aging population. Robots and intelligent computers or things won't be great. Of course it comes with a risk of AIs doing something bad.

Prices of about everything will gradually trend towards zero, but never actually reaching it. So people in the future will have it much better than we do. Just like we have it much better than people a thousand years ago. For example cost of energy is going to decrease substantially.