From what I've observed over decades, the future is always in between the most optimistic and the most pessimistic predictions. That's why we don't live in Kurzweil's 2022 where US's life expectancy is 103 years or so, but we also don't live in Paul Ralph Ehrlich's 2022 where billions had starved to death. That's why I'm cautiously optimistic. I'm not even sure the Singularity will be a thing, we may have more gradual, positive progress forward. For example +6% Global GDP and +25% faster computers every year for hundreds of years or more.

AI already does art better than the majority of humans and it will be trained on the whole web, including all DA, all Pixiv, all ArtStation, etc. Nothing will stop it, BUT I hope that people won't overdo it and won't upload for quantity's sake. I think that we should focus on quality instead of quantity of art. There are billions of images on the web and you could spend your whole life browsing through what has been uploaded to this point, without even considering what will be uploaded in the coming years. So I appreciate more DA accounts with 40 very good AI artworks, instead of 4000 poor or mediocre ones. I think it's going to augment our ability to create what we imagine, to look at it ourselves or show it to others. Opting in or out probably won't change anything - regardless of the morality of it.

In one manga series, a vampire says she doesn't need to bite people anymore, because she can order (lab-grown) blood from Amazon, which she stores in her fridge. He even freezes it and eats it like ice-cream. She stated that living in the past was very inconvenient and she disliked biting people. She's grateful for modern conveniences.

I hope this innovation will spread quickly, because it would be very helpful. There's a shortage of blood after all. I await a future when no one needs to donate blood.

Naming it aside, I think that Ray is basically correct, just wrong in his timing of things. I do think and hope that we will be turning everything into some kind of computronium to create simulations where anything and everything is possible. Who knows what we will do there with greatly amplified intellect? And if not, the total mass of computers in existence will still go up, not down. Their efficiency will improve as well of course.

I wasn't addressing you.

To be honest, I would much prefer Singularity caused by greatly amplified humans than ASI. That's the human perspective. I would prefer to be much smarter myself than to have an AI helper. But an AI helper is much preferable to what the situation is now.

We certainly could achieve Singularity with human augmentation, amplifying human intelligence directly.

Depends entirely on your definition of Singularity. I think we probably could.

This poll won't change anything. And being pessimistic won't help.

Reversing aging will certainly lead to a much, much stronger economy and will benefit everyone, rich and poor. Thing is, what classifies as rich or poor will change in the future.

I checked "immortality", because that's what I hope for. Otherwise, why even bother creating ASI?

In 2022 there are more job openings than people willing to take them. There is a shortage of workers, despite what Singularitarians were writing 10 years ago. There's no technological unemployment. That's just science-fiction. And cheaper stuff doesn't come from UBI. The whole idea of the soon incoming mass technological unemployment is mistaken. Change doesn't happen so fast. Just look at Tesla Optimus. It's just a one robot and it's so far from doing everything a human can, but better.

Why? Prices of stuff have been dropping for centuries now and there has not been any UBI. Things like the cost of lighting, transportation, sending a message, iron, steel, bricks, glass, containers, bed sheets or clothes have been getting cheaper for a long time. I don't think that without UBI we won't see lower prices. That's a baseless assumption. It does not mean I wouldn't want an UBI.

Good. Less people will be needed for harvesting fruits. More people to do other things or just enjoy life. Fruit prices will go down.

Yeah, assuming humans use the AIs responsibly and with goodness in mind, which is doubtful.

I am seriously worried that people are and will be using AI irresponsibly. <( _ _ )>
It is up to us humans to use AI responsibly, reasonably, conscientiously, levelheadedly and rationally. (ㆆ_ㆆ)

If we f**k this up, it will be our fault, not AI's. AI is a tool. We are executive and in control. AI is not an invasion of aliens. WE are creating AI, not God, not aliens and it doesn't create itself.

I expect gradual slowing down of the doubling in AI compute. The doubling times will be getting longer. So don't expect some miracles to happen by the end of this decade.

I believe in the 80-20 rule.

Getting to 80% of image synthesis takes 5 years, but the last 20% will take another 20 years.

Similarly with text, voice and video. So for the near future, I will prefer human output to machine output, but that is going to change eventually.

If 90% of content will be AI-generated by 2026, then that content will be crappy. Not to say that human content is good.

I think that 5-10 years is way too optimistic. For one, computer hardware in 10 years might be only 10x faster than now. For two, progress in such AI doesn't have to follow the last 5 years trendline.

I think we will need methods to slow down aging and to automate various tasks really soon, in the 2030s as the latest.

Funnily enough, there are more job openings today than 10 years ago. 😅

Funnily enough, I'm much more skeptical over automation and AI than I was for example 10 years ago, when I expected huge changes over the next 10 years. I very much expect the world to go in a positive direction, not extremely quickly, but with a moderate speed. I discuss it with people, but realistically. Not in some crazy optimistic, unrealistic manner like 10 years ago. I do think that all cashiers and truck drivers will be gone in 15 to 20 years. Artists and bus drivers in 20-25 years.

Actually good, high-quality, 2 hours long movies? That will take 25-30 years in my opinion. For now I just want better image synthesis.

If you mean images of them, it already works pretty well. If you mean 3D objects, more training is needed. If you mean gynoids, then also more work is necessary.

"Real" humans are disgusting.