Totally.

Or even scripts that are completely AI generated. You have a chat with the AI about your favourite movies, why you like them, what kind of movie or experience you want right now, and bam! An incredible movie starts playing tailored for you for right now.

You could be wanting a 3 minute experience or a 300 minute experience and it will set it up for you.

Hell you could make them interactive. The AI could be listening to your state to see your engagement, or you could literally interact with the movie as it is happening.

The start-up that nails it and launches that will be worth Disney + Netflix + hollywood studios + cable networks + chunk of Youtube + more = $0.5-$2 trillion plus with extremely low cost of development as compared to shooting an actual movie.

That is a massive value. Of course there will be multiple companies that do this but it will be incredible regardless.

The pace is staggering. We could be 2 years away from high quality Hollywood style movies which emotionally is unbelievable but logically a very real possibility.

Hollywood movies take years of preproduction, shooting and postproduction. Movies and scripts that are just getting greenlight could be near valueless by the time they are finished.

That is insane.

We have never made AGI before and we have exponential tech building on exponential tech. I keep updating my estimates which were already insanely aggressive not that long ago.

Why the heck would meta go and do work that is already mostly accomplished when they could tackle a new problem??

Yes I agree with all your points and the funding complexity/external pressure that it brings.

But out of all the tech CEOs out there I'm most impressed by these three. Both their intelligence and morals

Yeah get off reddit and start building!

>TTI

TTI?

I agree with proto AGI date but disagree strongly with UBI rollout date. Governments move slowwwwly and the US, if ever, will take far far faaar longer for any social program like that vs European countries.

On average 100% true, however, the leaders of AI (Sam Altman, Dennis, Musk) are exactly the type of people I would want running the show. They are all deep thinkers and care deeply for humanity (look at their actions not public opinion).

Thank you for your response.

I particularly agree with your point that once we hit an AI milestone it is easy for others.

Do you think it will be easy for a large amount of AI companies or will it be limited to a handful? Like can a startup come in and be a year behind an industry leader or is it reserved to ~10 AI leaders?

100÷ agree the best return will be startups. Perhaps it will be those who can utilize AI to replace traditionally labor heavy industries.

In that circumstance, do AI startups (eventually) compete with each other and drive the price down?

I also agree with the premise that you don't want to invest in companies with a long term vision(or more importantly, launch date). However I think our estimated date for self driving is very different. I think there is a small chance Tesla will get self driving in 2 years, and a very good chance of 3-4 and certainly by 5.

So on the assumption that the barriers to entry are low to advanced AI, then the real winners may be those you can buy assets that produce a physical product (which will always be limited unlike AI) which they can then automate and lower the operating cost. I'm thinking primarily physical assets in this example.

For digital assets then it is almost a certainty that a startup is a far more effective manner to compete.

BTW I would happily take a 10 year counter investment with you.

I go long Tesla and short your position of incumbents.

Thoughtful reply, thank you.

>AI companies will benefit almost nothing from the creation of AI but that companies whose value generation is bottlenecked by human workers will benefit the most.

Hmmm. I have a very hard time agreeing with this statement. I'll share my assumptions:

1. There a large barriers to entry to strong AI. Meaning a startup with limited resources will not be able to compete with a well funded AI company. The costs of compute are just too high.

AI companies will do the heavy lifting and create a base model that startups can then fine tune and they can raise their costs to eat the profit of their customers who apply it to specific problems.

Physical navigation and manipulation of physical environments is the hardest problem to solve for AI. 

Exactly. You want to invest in a company that creates a product that is difficult to achieve because then competitors can't come in and eat their lunch.

Tesla has competitive advantages in data, compute and hardware. They are miles ahead of anyone else. Once they get there they can license the software out.

And AI for driving and bots is more or less the same.

>Law firms, R&D, Pharmaceutical industry are most likely to be the big winners, at least over the next 5-10 years time as most of their workers get replaced while also able to scale up their "production" due to having technically uncapped amount of AI "intellectual labor" at their disposal.

Those with minimal barriers to entry will be eaten by competitors. You will not see an old school law firm start to train their own AI models. This will be done by startups.

And those startups will be paying the model generator (eg; OpenAI) everytime they make a query.

Pharmaceutical companies with the equipment in place, funds for trials, etc. could benefit from it.

Having said that, Deepmind is focusing on making drug discovery easier by (in the future) creating accurate digital cells. That is a way off.. but! that certainly doesn't favour the incumbents.

When a massive disruption hits an industry it is not the existing companies that will benefit from that change. They already have their margins priced in and I think they can only really go down.

Interested to hear any counter points.

No. Google returns your websites.

And AI can answer your question directly and in a conversational manner.

It can create the content you want, whether it be audio, images, video, text, data, voice, etc.

Google is in a prime position to adapt, however, time and time again those in the dominant position fail to innovate and Google hasn't been innovating like they used to.

1. Stay up to date on AI. Try out the new tools as they become available, even if it costs you a few dollars per month. You want to stay current to better predict where AI is going and what it will impact
2. Integrate AI into your workflows and accept the burden. From writing emails, to coding, to clip art for presentations. The more practice you have with AI as a tool, the better you will be able to use it when it improves.
3. Proactively look for processes in your career where AI can be used to improve the process. This might be out of your current domain (eg another department), but look out for them. If you can build experience in applying AI to existing processes it will be a in demand skill for many years.
4. Invest a portion of your net worth into companies that will benefit from an AI boom. Tesla is my #1 candidate atm with self driving, their Tesla bot, and as a contender for AGI.
5. Take care of your health. This is good general advice but you want to position yourself to see as much of the tech change as possible.

Hmmm, I think a slow transition would be far less disruptive. You have a lot of people and system in place that will take time to adjust. A rapid transition will lead to a lot of unrest.

Unfortunately/fortunately, I think the transition will be rather fast

There's a very real chance googles cash cow gets replaced by another company

My feeling is there is a very good chance we will have AGI by 2030. A decent chance by 2028-2030. And a very slim chance by 2025. I think the wild card is deepmind for the 2025 scenario.

And agreed the date doesn't really matter. AIs impact will continue to grow exponentially

Really do wonder where we will be at in five years.

We will certainly have very accurate video clips (vs still inaccurate images now).

We will be able to feed language models into image generators, but I assume we will have a single integrated model for that.

And we are getting close to voice and music, so certainly in five years we will have mastered that.

Meaning we will have a model that will be able to generate videos with voices, sound tracks and sfx, shots, dialogue, and a story. Potentially we will be able to make longer form content (perhaps episodes or movies by then)

Tesla bot will be able to take commands and do activities. Plugged the net above will have voice.

Deepmind will continue their work with a general purpose model which will be able to take in problems and solve them. The question is will they be able to recursively improve an AI model. That is the biggest unknown. If so that will outshine everyone else's work.

Right now we have a few companies making images (Facebook, openai, midjourney, openai). I expect there to many companies doing it and very good models you can run on your own GPU at home that makes decent output.

Expect search to have largely changed so instead of googling for websites you ask an AI a question and it generates an answer.

Expect a lot more voice input/discussion with AI. Instead of giving it commands you give guidance (eg play some good music vs play red hot chilli peppers)

Talking of music I think a majority of music in five years will be AI generated and will be fantastic (mentioned above)

Self driving will be solved by Tesla. Don't think anyone else will have it. They may license it out to other companies.

With self driving solved Tesla will focus on other areas, potentially general purpose AI.

Good set of predictions here. Interested to see how accurate they are :)

RemindMe! 5 years

Also Google Search, one of the largest products by revenue, has a very real option of been disrupted with AI

RemindMe! 3 years

RemindMe! 2 years

I really like your insights and agree with them. When I stop and try to think logically I can forsee AGI getting here far faster than what emotionally feels right and your thought structure really helps me make sense of that disparity.

A+ man. Interested to hear any other thoughts you have and, out of curiosity, what date you have for AGI?

Fuck yeah Andrew. What did he to do save us? Is Andrew an AI? Tell me more!

I agree 2029ish is a good date for general AI. 2032 at the latest. But once we get that, getting to full control AI must only be 12 months away surely. 2 years at absolute tops. How do you see 11 years? That is a hellllll of a long time.

Oh wow, that seems very optmistic to me. I was like 2030 is decent, 2028 would be a bit early. 2026 would be insanely early, 2025 is unprecedented. But, predicting something that has never happened is obs hard.

Do you have much reasoning behind it?

Like we will have great photos in say 12 months? And perfect in 24? With perfect videos around the same time frame. Good music would be in 24-36 months. Good voice a bit after that.