botfiddler

botfiddler t1_iwyinks wrote

Made some nice pics of Pluto with a probe. Sending another probe outside of our solar system. Found some exoplanets using telescopes, up to 10k-25k light-years away from us (sources vary). Also, doing gravity astronomy now, looking back close to the beginning of the universe.

Edit: Better grammar.

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botfiddler t1_iwyhru2 wrote

I'm rather a bit careful or conservative, but I think it's likely that in 10 years from now 50-90% of all office jobs can be replaced with some AI. This might still not happen immediately as soon as it's possible, and there might be some new jobs created at the same time, but it's going to be wild anyways.

Just ask yourself how many here would be impacted by that.

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botfiddler t1_iwmkhk3 wrote

They will agree to it, there will be no other option. That's exactly your strawman: Saying they won't want what they could get, and what they want they can't ever have. But it works if we reverse it. They want and will take what they can get, and get over what they can't have.

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botfiddler t1_iwmjtcv wrote

Thought about it a bit more:

  • There will always be niches for humans expressing their individuality.
  • The interests of some celebrities or special humans don't outweigh all the positives.
  • Computer games are essentially creating artificial problems, for us to solve and feel satisfaction, so that the solution. You should also get into it, I guess.
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botfiddler t1_iwmf7x3 wrote

This has already been addressed by other people. It will enable more content and more competition, it's not the end of human creativity. Also, if a AI could make up the best art, entertainment or VR worlds for everyone, then that wouldn't be a tragedy. Who cares? Many of the employed "artists" were gatekeeping content creation at least during the last decade or so anyways (Marvel, Disney, DC Comics, ...). Yeah, tragic for the Tumbler Mafia 🤷‍♂️

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botfiddler t1_iwmdisj wrote

The noise of electrical motors isn't that high, and they might land and start from buildings or special stations. Congestion and accidents are not an issue if it's expensive and with autopilot. They won't be passenger controlled. I don't understand you last point.

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botfiddler t1_iwlq64z wrote

Your standing in your own way. Some people want to be unhappy, it's either by choice or maybe depression. You can't find fulfilment in a hobby because a machine can do it better? We aren't there yet, and this is also messed up way of thinking about hobbies.

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botfiddler t1_iwieute wrote

Your predictions would be more convincing if you had some sources, maybe a little website with snippets from sources on which each prediction is based. Otherwise everyone will see it as a mixed bag where they agree with some and disagree with others, while wondering who you are that we should care.

Anyways, virtual reality, holodeck alike mixed reality, comes in surprisingly fast: https://youtu.be/23RS3RAg16k

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botfiddler t1_iwhrkth wrote

You probably won't know when we reached LEV. No one claims that there will be one or some treatments and then we'll know that we'll live forever. It currently looks quite good to me. That there isn't more research and hasn't been during the last few decades is also one of the biggest scandals of our time.

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botfiddler t1_iwhqeu6 wrote

Maybe there will be fewer cars and personal vehicles, but not anywhere close to zero. Maybe more so for bigger cars and city dwellers. Cybertruck is made for land owners. Poorer city folk will walk, go with a bike or some scooter, aside from public transportation. Others will fly in electric drone-like devices with auto-pilot.

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botfiddler t1_iwhpnbg wrote

I had similar thoughts. The future will be a mix out of post-apocalyptic and things which look now like scifi. However, we probably won't have widespread famines in the developed world that fast. Same for a global breakdown. I also don't believe in a complete breakdown of supply chains and end of shipping. Shipping and using a global economy is energy efficient per ton. It might end, when we have more automatization in the developed world or low wage refugees, or both.

There will be pockets of technological progress. The people working on self-driving at Tesla are only 150 engineers.

Tipping points being reached doesn't mean the bad things happen directly after that point, only that it is to late to reverse it, either with current knowledge and technology or in definitely.

Global mass migrations are also just lefty propaganda. You can't have lack of food and people wandering around for hundreds of miles. It's not possible. Same for the openess of target countries. Also, it probably wouldn't matter, only create more inequality and a bigger market for surveillance and weapons.

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botfiddler t1_iwh0mt5 wrote

Many men will have some form of synthetic girlfriends, like animated dolls, much earlier. It might take 15-20 years to also have them doing all or most chores at home. Many childcare tasks would be easier and many chores could be done by other robots. Combine that with guys being able to work from home, live on capital returns or getting UBI.

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botfiddler t1_iwgzrdf wrote

Not necessarily as cars, which would be a hybrid, yeah that would be stupid. But short range flying vehicles make sense. I think your argument is about steering, but they would fly automatically. I think it makes more sense to have them for some people which would be flying from suburban areas or between one side of the city to another.

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botfiddler t1_iw6vj4m wrote

>Moravec's paradox is the observation by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, reasoning requires very little computation, but sensorimotor and perception skills require enormous computational resources. The principle was articulated by Hans Moravec, Rodney Brooks, Marvin Minsky and others in the 1980s. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec's_paradox

The current research solves perception, imagination and anticipation. I'm not sure to which extent reasoning is already solved, but it isn't at zero. I think it will be done with knowledge graphs.

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