We'll see I suppose. I'm skeptical about any AR that we can make today. Haha

Interesting. Would be funny for them to basically bring back the headphone wire that they killed off.

Will be curious to see what works in the end. I'd personally love advanced AR once it's market ready.

True, but you don't need one for AR and well I agree that VR requires it.

Granted this is AR, so not really metaverse.

Yeah, I still suspect it won't be till between 2028 to 2032 for when transistor density and battery technology enables AR glasses to meet market demands for performance and comfort.

Would be curious if whatever their cause of death received the same reprogramming or not. Simply removing one cause of age related death doesn't prolong life long since something else is normally close behind, you have to nearly do a full body reprogram which is far harder.

It will be interesting to learn more about the study.

Yeah, all of them want to stay away from saying immortal or LEV to distance themselves. When or if we see people reversing in age due to body wide epigenetic reprogramming then we'll know we got to the point when aging is no a limit to longevity.

I actually think Sinclair is simply saying 150 to not sound crazy. He clearly believes that epigenetic reprogramming can be done unlimited times and therefore there is no biological limit, if we can get to 150 then we can have no biological age limit.

Yes, however laser fusion was never the closest thing to market viability. You have to look at high temperature super conductor magnetic fusion like commonwealth fusion and others.

Even ITER will likely be outdated by the time it turns on.

Quantum computing (which is expected to be useful in early 2030s or even late 2020s) will allow for simulating material properties especially for high temperature super conductors to rapidly iterate on materials to find better ones. Then higher temperature super conductors enable stronger magnetic fields by having an increased electrical current capacity while super conducting. This increased magnetic field makes one need a far smaller arc radius to achieve sustainable fusion, the smaller arc radius dramatically reduces on iteration time and therefore massively accelerates our ability to reach a grid ready fusion reactor.

Higher temperature super conductors are so useful for fusion that a room temperature one would enable even micro reactors with an arc radius of less than an inch to achieve the pressures needed for fusion to take place. The energy output scales linearly with the arc radius, but to the cube of the magnetic field which scales linearly with the super conducting temperature threshold.

Yes, though Sinclair's lab found that simply ignoring one of the yamanaka factors prevented the cancerous growths while still reversing significant damage without reverting the cellular identity to a stem cell.

They're already approaching clinical trials for Cellular reprogramming in some specific targets like heart tissue in heart attack survivors and more.

Calico funded by alphabet, Altos Labs funded by Bezos, and countless others are focused on bringing cellular reprogramming to market and have billions in funding to do so.

In my view Aubrey De Gray also isn't at the cutting edge that much anymore in the longevity field. Sinclair has a good overview of the aging process but is also too focused on supplements like metformin and NMN.

Cellular reprogramming has been absurdly promising though and has countless highly funded startups bringing it to market.

Fusion energy has been progressing steadily towards working though.

Battery breakthroughs also happen fairly often. Solid state batteries are genuinely approaching market readiness in 2025 and 2026.

I suspect every year for a technology like AI will make the previous year seem boring by comparison.

This can be said for Fusion, autonomous vehicles, robotics, biotechnologies, quantum computing, EVs, and more as well.

Besides that we are nowhere close to the limit of current 13.5 NM wavelength lithography fabrication for semiconductors, until we get down to the angstrom scale chips will continue on their current acceleration in power especially for things like AI.

First we just have to realize that allowing existing homeowners to block construction of housing shouldn't be allowed. Then we need to ensure that infill developments are encouraged through subsidies over greenfield developments.

Housing is soo unaffordable for so many because we allow housing developments to be blocked so easily. If food was the same way we'd have far more starving people and only organics would ever be grown.

After we fix the market for housing then a housing stipend program similar to food stamps could fix the rest.

When we talk about UBI and AGI and mass automation things change a lot due to the massive wealth generation that would create.

Yeah, even if we got ion propulsion to be advanced enough it would still have thrust. It's not likely we'll have flying cars like in star wars, though perhaps we could stimulate it with stacked high temperature super conductor infrastructure combined with fusion energy for levitating vehicles but that's really just like a bunch of stacked mag lev's and not actually flying cars. By that point cars will have long been autonomous, and more like on demand Transit vehicles compared to today's cars.

Edit: I think what's more likely is for relatively low cost miniaturized fusion powered high speed orbital trans continent travel between hubs. Within a hub mass transit and autonomous vehicles will still be the solution.

I also believe that autonomous vehicles will enable hub to hub mass transit by providing an ideal solution for last mile transport even for people who live far from a center hub. The main issue in the USA is that most of us don't live within walking distance to a central huh and taking an uber that far is even too expensive and unreliable.

Autonomous vehicles can really be a massive improvement over driven vehicles. The other issue is that trains are simply way too expensive and too slow in the United States.

Sure, just wouldn't call it "enslaving" them seeing as that generally means forcing them to work against their will which if we build an AGI or an ASI seems unlikely to be feasible. Well aligned is a far better term and in my view will be the only thing that could work.

I agree, though it may not be nearly as efficient as a human brain when it comes to being intelligent. I'm my opinion all you need to do is look at the gains from GPUs vs CPU AI training to see how much scaling up local chip compute potential does for AI to see how much potentially better a 3D human brain may be compared to even a wafer scale stacked 2D chip and then acknowledge that the human brain doesn't just compute with 1 and 0, the chemical signals offers slightly more options and just off and on as we learned recently.

There are advantages to a silicone electronic circuit as well of course, the main one being speed since electricity flows far far faster than chemical signals.

I am also personally unsure of how "enslaving" a verified general intelligence would be ethical regardless of it's computational architecture. It's far better to ensure alignment so that it's not "enslaved" but rather wants to collaborate to achieve the same goals.

I'd say it's still a hardware and software problem. We are still nowhere close to building a computational circuit that replicates the human brain which uses complex 3D computational structures where connections can be made between neurons that are far apart to link computational circuits in completely different ways from what we do with lithography constructed computers. While it's possible that we'll be able to achieve AGI through the raw power of miniaturizing lithography built computation, it is a completely different structure compared to the brain so it's not a guarantee.

The difference between a true 3D compute architecture and a 2D compute or even a stacked 2D compute is pretty enormous (it's like comparing x² vs x³).

It's also clearly a software problem as well, though I'm curious if you need plasticity and massive connectivity between far reaching compute sections to archive an AGI level intelligence for things like creativity similar to a human brain.

Alphabet is in the business of making money, pretty sure whatever Deepmind is working on is likely their cutting edge, if they had AGI I think we'd know.

Mind you in my opinion by definition AGI would have to be human level at robotics so it should be able to automate all labor including building and maintenance of said robots. The amount of value in that would be unfathomable to us.

I strongly doubt that, they would have released it already and skyrocketed in value already. I suspect personally that OpenAI (Microsoft), Deepmind (Alphabet), and apparently even Meta (see their recent diplomacy playing AI) will all be competitive in the space.

I'd suspect a long while. There isn't that much value in home robots so you can't charge that much. They'll be in a ton of jobs prior to ever being in homes. I wouldn't expect anything till a while after manual construction jobs are automated which is seemingly a ways away though admittedly could happen sooner than expected cause AI is a wild technology.

Well that's pretty dang handy. Looking forward to seeing it be applied more!

I suspect GPT4 will be the start of commercialization for common use of AI systems, however I suspect we will need more of an advancement in AI rather than just scale to truly get to a point where we can automate a substantial portion of the workforce.

We're already seeing what ChatGPT can do, I think its clear that we'll see some wild things by 2030. I'll be really curious how well these types of AI models can transfer to robotics and physical systems.

Amazon is a lot of things, but a monopoly is definitely not one of them. Walmart still controls more market share for retail than Amazon does by a pretty wide margin. Even AWS has healthy competition with Microsoft and others and is therefore not a monopoly...

Amazon is a public company in the private industry. They aren't part of the government obviously... The government taking over them would also be devastating to our economy. Private Public partnerships and taxation with reinvestment is the way to go...

I get that you like to doom, but at least know what to doom about. Moore v Harper, the SCOTUS case that may allow state legislators to ignore voters and send electors as they please and therefore end democracy is the biggest threat today.

We should elect officials who may enable reducing inequality and creating opportunity through government investments but that's a separate issue...

Edit: also you can always buy Amazon shares and then vote about the direction of their company if you'd like...