shillyshally

shillyshally t1_iu31xt6 wrote

Powell warned about the the vulnerable Colorado river nearly 150 years ago. Cadillac Desert laid out the inevitable drought collapse in detail to stopped up ears. The immigration problem won't be limited to India and Africa headed for the EU. People on the American East Coast will be getting ugly re migrants - AMERICAN migrants - from the American West. It's not as if you need to back that far, just to 1930 to see all the hearts harden within minutes towards the drought refugees.

Humans will survive and get through this but at vastly reduced numbers and those who will survive will probably not be people you would care to have to dinner. They won't even like one another.

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shillyshally t1_iu2uhuq wrote

It's not hard to predict that humans are fucked. The tricky part is how fucked and how soon.

Temps are approaching the wet-bulb limits in many parts of India. The drought in the West is nearing catastrophic with Lakes Powell and Mead drying up and now news that the Mississippi is as well in areas. The American coasts - all coasts, really - are increasingly prey to violent weather. Jakarta is close to being under water and more and more areas are water precarious. Where will all these people go? The bitching about borders now is nothing compared to what it will be as the relatively safe areas hunker down and forbid entrance.

It doesn't have to get to maximum bad, the situation only has to get a wee bit worse.

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shillyshally t1_iu2isn0 wrote

"Neither of those futures looks all that likely now, with the most terrifying predictions made improbable by decarbonization and the most hopeful ones practically foreclosed by tragic delay. The window of possible climate futures is narrowing, and as a result, we are getting a clearer sense of what’s to come: a new world, full of disruption but also billions of people, well past climate normal and yet mercifully short of true climate apocalypse."

Dunno, I am not as sanguine as the New York Times.

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